Skip to main content
Top
Published in: Infectious Diseases and Therapy 5/2024

Open Access 25-04-2024 | Vaccination | Original Research

Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns

Authors: Diana Mendes, Sheeja Machira Krishnan, Esmé O’Brien, Thomas Padgett, Cale Harrison, W. David Strain, Andrea Manca, Andrew Ustianowski, Rebecca Butfield, Elizabeth Hamson, Charlie Reynard, Jingyan Yang

Published in: Infectious Diseases and Therapy | Issue 5/2024

Login to get access

Abstract

Introduction

The delivery of COVID-19 vaccines was successful in reducing hospitalizations and mortality. However, emergence of the Omicron variant resulted in increased virus transmissibility. Consequently, booster vaccination programs were initiated to decrease the risk of severe disease and death among vulnerable members of the population. This study aimed to estimate the effects of the booster program and alternative vaccination strategies on morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19 in the UK.

Method

A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was used to assess the impact of several vaccination strategies on severe outcomes associated with COVID-19, including hospitalizations, mortality, National Health Service (NHS) capacity quantified by hospital general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) bed days, and patient productivity. The model accounted for age-, risk- and immunity-based stratification of the UK population. Outcomes were evaluated over a 48-week time horizon from September 2022 to August 2023 considering the actual UK autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaigns and six counterfactual strategies.

Results

The model estimated that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign resulted in a reduction of 18,921 hospitalizations and 1463 deaths, compared with a no booster scenario. Utilization of hospital bed days due to COVID-19 decreased after the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. Expanding the booster eligibility criteria and improving uptake improved all outcomes, including averting twice as many ICU admissions, preventing more than 20% additional deaths, and a sevenfold reduction in long COVID, compared with the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. The number of productive days lost was reduced by fivefold indicating that vaccinating a wider population has a beneficial impact on the morbidities associated with COVID-19.

Conclusion

Our modelling demonstrates that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign reduced COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality. Booster campaigns with alternative eligibility criteria warrant consideration in the UK, given their potential to further reduce morbidity and mortality as future variants emerge.
Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Literature
1.
go back to reference Singanayagam A, Hakki S, Dunning J, et al. Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022;22(2):183–95.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Singanayagam A, Hakki S, Dunning J, et al. Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022;22(2):183–95.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
2.
go back to reference Notarte KI, Catahay JA, Velasco JV, et al. Impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the risk of developing long-COVID and on existing long-COVID symptoms: a systematic review. eClinicalMedicine. 2022;53:101624. Notarte KI, Catahay JA, Velasco JV, et al. Impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the risk of developing long-COVID and on existing long-COVID symptoms: a systematic review. eClinicalMedicine. 2022;53:101624.
5.
go back to reference Nyberg T, Ferguson NM, Nash SG, et al. Comparative analysis of the risks of hospitalisation and death associated with SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) and delta (B.1.617.2) variants in England: a cohort study. Lancet. 2022;399(10332):1303–12.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Nyberg T, Ferguson NM, Nash SG, et al. Comparative analysis of the risks of hospitalisation and death associated with SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) and delta (B.1.617.2) variants in England: a cohort study. Lancet. 2022;399(10332):1303–12.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
6.
go back to reference Feikin DR, Higdon MM, Abu-Raddad LJ, et al. Duration of effectiveness of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease: results of a systematic review and meta-regression. Lancet. 2022;399(10328):924–44.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Feikin DR, Higdon MM, Abu-Raddad LJ, et al. Duration of effectiveness of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease: results of a systematic review and meta-regression. Lancet. 2022;399(10328):924–44.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
7.
go back to reference Andrews N, Stowe J, Kirsebom F, et al. Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant. N Engl J Med. 2022;386(16):1532–46.CrossRefPubMed Andrews N, Stowe J, Kirsebom F, et al. Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant. N Engl J Med. 2022;386(16):1532–46.CrossRefPubMed
12.
13.
go back to reference Meng B, Abdullahi A, Ferreira IATM, et al. Altered TMPRSS2 usage by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron impacts infectivity and fusogenicity. Nature. 2022;603(7902):706–14.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Meng B, Abdullahi A, Ferreira IATM, et al. Altered TMPRSS2 usage by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron impacts infectivity and fusogenicity. Nature. 2022;603(7902):706–14.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
14.
go back to reference Mendes D, Chapman R, Aruffo E, et al. Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2023;22(1):90–103.CrossRefPubMed Mendes D, Chapman R, Aruffo E, et al. Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2023;22(1):90–103.CrossRefPubMed
15.
go back to reference Mendes D, Chapman R, Gal P, et al. Public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during Delta variant dominance in autumn 2021. J Med Econ. 2022;25(1):1039–50.CrossRefPubMed Mendes D, Chapman R, Gal P, et al. Public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during Delta variant dominance in autumn 2021. J Med Econ. 2022;25(1):1039–50.CrossRefPubMed
17.
go back to reference Walker JL, Grint DJ, Strongman H, et al. UK prevalence of underlying conditions which increase the risk of severe COVID-19 disease: a point prevalence study using electronic health records. BMC Public Health. 2021;21(1):484.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Walker JL, Grint DJ, Strongman H, et al. UK prevalence of underlying conditions which increase the risk of severe COVID-19 disease: a point prevalence study using electronic health records. BMC Public Health. 2021;21(1):484.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
18.
go back to reference Bobrovitz N, Ware H, Ma X, et al. Protective effectiveness of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against the omicron variant and severe disease: a systematic review and meta-regression. Lancet Infect Dis. 2023;23(5):556–67.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Bobrovitz N, Ware H, Ma X, et al. Protective effectiveness of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against the omicron variant and severe disease: a systematic review and meta-regression. Lancet Infect Dis. 2023;23(5):556–67.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
19.
20.
go back to reference Knock ES, Whittles LK, Lees JA, et al. Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. Sci Transl Med. 2021;13(602):eabg4262.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Knock ES, Whittles LK, Lees JA, et al. Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. Sci Transl Med. 2021;13(602):eabg4262.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
22.
go back to reference Global Burden of Disease Long COVID Collaborators. Estimated global proportions of individuals with persistent fatigue, cognitive, and respiratory symptom clusters following symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. JAMA. 2022;328(16):1604–15.CrossRefPubMedCentral Global Burden of Disease Long COVID Collaborators. Estimated global proportions of individuals with persistent fatigue, cognitive, and respiratory symptom clusters following symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. JAMA. 2022;328(16):1604–15.CrossRefPubMedCentral
25.
go back to reference Soare I-A, Ansari W, Nguyen JL, et al. Health-related quality of life in mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in the UK: a cross-sectional study from pre- to post-infection. Health Qual Life Outcomes. 2024;22(1):12.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Soare I-A, Ansari W, Nguyen JL, et al. Health-related quality of life in mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in the UK: a cross-sectional study from pre- to post-infection. Health Qual Life Outcomes. 2024;22(1):12.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
31.
go back to reference Baguelin M, Flasche S, Camacho A, et al. Assessing optimal target populations for influenza vaccination programmes: an evidence synthesis and modelling study. PLoS Med. 2013;10(10):e1001527.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Baguelin M, Flasche S, Camacho A, et al. Assessing optimal target populations for influenza vaccination programmes: an evidence synthesis and modelling study. PLoS Med. 2013;10(10):e1001527.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
33.
go back to reference MacIntyre CR, Costantino V, Trent M. Modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies and herd immunity, in scenarios of limited and full vaccine supply in NSW, Australia. Vaccine. 2022;40(17):2506–13.CrossRefPubMed MacIntyre CR, Costantino V, Trent M. Modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies and herd immunity, in scenarios of limited and full vaccine supply in NSW, Australia. Vaccine. 2022;40(17):2506–13.CrossRefPubMed
34.
go back to reference Ferreira LS, de Almeida GB, Borges ME, et al. Modelling optimal vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in a context of Gamma variant predominance in Brazil. Vaccine. 2022;40(46):6616–24.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Ferreira LS, de Almeida GB, Borges ME, et al. Modelling optimal vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in a context of Gamma variant predominance in Brazil. Vaccine. 2022;40(46):6616–24.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
35.
go back to reference LaJoie Z, Usherwood T, Sampath S, Srivastava V. A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior. Sci Rep. 2022;12(1):20377.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral LaJoie Z, Usherwood T, Sampath S, Srivastava V. A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior. Sci Rep. 2022;12(1):20377.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
37.
go back to reference Matrajt L, Eaton J, Leung T, Brown ER. Vaccine optimization for COVID-19: who to vaccinate first? Sci Adv. 2020;7(6):eabf1374. Matrajt L, Eaton J, Leung T, Brown ER. Vaccine optimization for COVID-19: who to vaccinate first? Sci Adv. 2020;7(6):eabf1374.
40.
41.
go back to reference Perez-Guzman PN, Knock E, Imai N, et al. Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Nat Commun. 2023;14(1):4279.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Perez-Guzman PN, Knock E, Imai N, et al. Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Nat Commun. 2023;14(1):4279.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
42.
go back to reference O'Mahoney LL, Routen A, Gillies C, et al. The prevalence and long-term health effects of long Covid among hospitalised and non-hospitalised populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis. eClinicalMedicine. 2023;55:101762. O'Mahoney LL, Routen A, Gillies C, et al. The prevalence and long-term health effects of long Covid among hospitalised and non-hospitalised populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis. eClinicalMedicine. 2023;55:101762.
43.
go back to reference Schnitzler L, Janssen LMM, Evers SMAA, et al. The broader societal impacts of COVID-19 and the growing importance of capturing these in health economic analyses. Int J Technol Assess Health Care. 2021;37(1):e43.CrossRefPubMed Schnitzler L, Janssen LMM, Evers SMAA, et al. The broader societal impacts of COVID-19 and the growing importance of capturing these in health economic analyses. Int J Technol Assess Health Care. 2021;37(1):e43.CrossRefPubMed
45.
go back to reference Barnard RC, Davies NG, Munday JD, et al. Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era. Nat Commun. 2022;13(1):4879.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Barnard RC, Davies NG, Munday JD, et al. Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era. Nat Commun. 2022;13(1):4879.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
46.
go back to reference Hogan AB, Doohan P, Wu SL, et al. Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach. Nat Commun. 2023;14(1):4325.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Hogan AB, Doohan P, Wu SL, et al. Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach. Nat Commun. 2023;14(1):4325.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
48.
go back to reference Bubar KM, Reinholt K, Kissler SM, et al. Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus. Science. 2021;371(6532):916–21.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Bubar KM, Reinholt K, Kissler SM, et al. Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus. Science. 2021;371(6532):916–21.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
49.
50.
go back to reference The UK government needs to expand covid-19 vaccination this winter. BMJ. 2023;382:p2006. The UK government needs to expand covid-19 vaccination this winter. BMJ. 2023;382:p2006.
51.
go back to reference Di Fusco M, Sun X, Moran MM, et al. Impact of COVID-19 and effects of BNT162b2 on patient-reported outcomes: quality of life, symptoms, and work productivity among US adult outpatients. J Patient Rep Outcomes. 2022;6(1):123.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Di Fusco M, Sun X, Moran MM, et al. Impact of COVID-19 and effects of BNT162b2 on patient-reported outcomes: quality of life, symptoms, and work productivity among US adult outpatients. J Patient Rep Outcomes. 2022;6(1):123.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
52.
go back to reference Yaghoubi M, Salimi M, Meskarpour-Amiri M. Systematic review of productivity loss among healthcare workers due to Covid-19. Int J Health Plann Manage. 2022;37(1):94–111.CrossRefPubMed Yaghoubi M, Salimi M, Meskarpour-Amiri M. Systematic review of productivity loss among healthcare workers due to Covid-19. Int J Health Plann Manage. 2022;37(1):94–111.CrossRefPubMed
54.
go back to reference Tufts J, Guan N, Zemedikun DT, et al. The cost of primary care consultations associated with long COVID in non-hospitalised adults: a retrospective cohort study using UK primary care data. BMC Primary Care. 2023;24(1):245.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Tufts J, Guan N, Zemedikun DT, et al. The cost of primary care consultations associated with long COVID in non-hospitalised adults: a retrospective cohort study using UK primary care data. BMC Primary Care. 2023;24(1):245.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
56.
57.
go back to reference Kerksieck P, Ballouz T, Haile SR, et al. Post COVID-19 condition, work ability and occupational changes in a population-based cohort. The Lancet Regional Health – Europe. 2023;31:100671. Kerksieck P, Ballouz T, Haile SR, et al. Post COVID-19 condition, work ability and occupational changes in a population-based cohort. The Lancet Regional Health – Europe. 2023;31:100671.
62.
go back to reference O’Dowd A. Hospital bed occupancy rates in England reach dangerously high levels. BMJ. 2021;374: n2079.CrossRefPubMed O’Dowd A. Hospital bed occupancy rates in England reach dangerously high levels. BMJ. 2021;374: n2079.CrossRefPubMed
68.
Metadata
Title
Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns
Authors
Diana Mendes
Sheeja Machira Krishnan
Esmé O’Brien
Thomas Padgett
Cale Harrison
W. David Strain
Andrea Manca
Andrew Ustianowski
Rebecca Butfield
Elizabeth Hamson
Charlie Reynard
Jingyan Yang
Publication date
25-04-2024
Publisher
Springer Healthcare
Published in
Infectious Diseases and Therapy / Issue 5/2024
Print ISSN: 2193-8229
Electronic ISSN: 2193-6382
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40121-024-00965-8

Other articles of this Issue 5/2024

Infectious Diseases and Therapy 5/2024 Go to the issue
Live Webinar | 27-06-2024 | 18:00 (CEST)

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Live: Thursday 27th June 2024, 18:00-19:30 (CEST)

WHO estimates that half of all patients worldwide are non-adherent to their prescribed medication. The consequences of poor adherence can be catastrophic, on both the individual and population level.

Join our expert panel to discover why you need to understand the drivers of non-adherence in your patients, and how you can optimize medication adherence in your clinics to drastically improve patient outcomes.

Prof. Kevin Dolgin
Prof. Florian Limbourg
Prof. Anoop Chauhan
Developed by: Springer Medicine
Obesity Clinical Trial Summary

At a glance: The STEP trials

A round-up of the STEP phase 3 clinical trials evaluating semaglutide for weight loss in people with overweight or obesity.

Developed by: Springer Medicine
Webinar | 06-02-2024 | 20:00 (CET)

Mastering chronic pancreatitis pain: A multidisciplinary approach and practical solutions

Severe pain is the most common symptom of chronic pancreatitis. In this webinar, experts share the latest insights in pain management for chronic pancreatitis patients. Experts from a range of disciplines discuss pertinent cases and provide practical suggestions for use within clinical practice.

Sponsored by: Viatris

Developed by: Springer Healthcare