Analysis of the survival time of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: a Bayesian approach via a competing risk parametric model

Heart failure (HF) is a widespread ailment and is a primary contributor to hospital admissions. The focus of this study was to identify factors affecting the extended-term survival of patients with HF, anticipate patient outcomes through cause-of-death analysis, and identify risk elements for preventive measures.

A total of 435 HF patients were enrolled from the medical records of the Rajaie Cardiovascular Medical and Research Center, covering data collected between March and August 2018. After a five-year follow-up (July 2023), patient outcomes were assessed based on the cause of death. The survival analysis was performed with the AFT method with the Bayesian approach in the presence of competing risks.

Based on the results of the best model for HF-related mortality, age [time ratio = 0.98, confidence interval 95%: 0.96–0.99] and ADHF [TR = 0.11, 95% (CI): 0.01–0.44] were associated with a lower survival time. Chest pain in HF-related mortality [TR = 0.41, 95% (CI): 0.10–0.96] and in non-HF-related mortality [TR = 0.38, 95% (CI): 0.12–0.86] was associated with a lower survival time. The next significant variable in HF-related mortality was hyperlipidemia (yes): [TR = 0.34, 95% (CI): 0.13–0.64], and in non-HF-related mortality hyperlipidemia (yes): [TR = 0.60, 95% (CI): 0.37–0.90]. CAD [TR = 0.65, 95% (CI): 0.38–0.98], CKD [TR = 0.52, 95% (CI): 0.28–0.87], and AF [TR = 0.53, 95% (CI): 0.32–0.81] were other variables that were directly related to the reduction in survival time of patients with non-HF-related mortality.

The study identified distinct predictive factors for overall survival among patients with HF-related mortality or non-HF-related mortality. This differentiated approach based on the cause of death contributes to the estimation of patient survival time and provides valuable insights for clinical decision-making.