Peripheral blood monocyte status is a predictor for judging occurrence and development on sepsis in older adult population: a case control study

Peripheral blood monocytes are important immune modulatory cells that change during aging. Previous studies on sepsis and monocytes did not distinguish between age groups, especially in the older adult population. The mechanisms of monocyte subsets and function are not well-understood in the aging context with sepsis.

Monocyte subsets were measured using flow cytometry in 80 sepsis patients and 40 healthy controls. Plasma cytokine levels were measured using cytokine antibody arrays.

The percentage of MO3 (CD14 + CD16 + +)/monocytes was higher in sepsis patients than in controls (P = 0.011), whereas the percentage of MO1 (CD14 +  + CD16 −)/monocytes was higher in septic shock patients and 28-day death group than in those without shock and 28-day survival group (P = 0.034, 0.038). Logistic regression analysis showed that the percentage of MO3/monocytes (OR = 1.120, P = 0.046) and plasma level of monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)-1 (OR = 1.006, P = 0.023) were independently associated with the occurrence of sepsis, whereas the percentage of MO1/monocytes (OR = 1.255, P = 0.048) was independently associated with septic shock. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of MO3/monocyte percentage in combination with MCP-1 plasma level (AUC = 0.799) for predicting sepsis was higher than that of each parameter alone (P < 0.001). The AUC of MO1/monocyte percentage with the value 0.706 (P = 0.003) was lower than the AUC of SOFA (sequential organ failure assessment) score with the value 0.966 (P < 0.001) for predicting septic shock, but the value of the two AUCs were similar for predicting 28-day mortality (AUC = 0.705, 0.827; P = 0.020, P < 0.001). The AUC of MO1/monocytes percentage in combination with SOFA score for predicting 28-day mortality was higher than that of each parameter alone (AUC = 0.867, P < 0.001). Using a cut-off of 58.5% (for MO1/monocytes determined by ROC) could discriminate between survivors and non-survivors on Kaplan–Meier curves for 28-day mortality with a positive predictive value of 77.4%.

The MO3/monocyte percentage and plasma MCP-1 level were independent predictors of sepsis occurrence, whereas the percentage of MO1/monocytes was an independent predictor of prognosis in the Chinese Han older adult population.

Registration number: ChiCTR2200061490, date of registration: 2022–6-26 (retrospectively registered).