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International Urology and Nephrology

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Open Access 12-06-2023 | Prostate Cancer | Urology - Original Paper

Nomogram for predicting the biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy

Authors: Qi Sun, Yuan-Zhong Yang, Ping Yang, Yong-Hong Li, Yun Cao, Dong Chen, Yijun Zhang

Published in: International Urology and Nephrology | Issue 9/2023

Abstract

Background

A predictive model for biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PCa) after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (nADT) has not been established. This study was aimed at determining multiparameter variables that could be used to construct a nomogram to predict the post-nADT BCR of PCa.

Methods

Overall, 43 radical prostatectomy specimens from PCa patients who had undergone nADT were collected. Multiparameter variables were analyzed by univariate and then multivariate logistic analyses to identify the independent prognostic factors for predicting BCR. The predictive model was established using Lasso regression analysis.

Results

Univariate logistic analysis revealed six variables, pathology stage; margins; categorization as group A, B, or C; nucleolus grading; percentage of tumor involvement (PTI); and PTEN status were significantly associated with the BCR of PCa (all p < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that categorization as group C, severe nucleolus grading, PTI less than or equal to 5%, and PTEN loss were positively correlated with BCR (all p < 0.05). A nomogram comprising the four variables predicting BCR was constructed, and it exhibited good discrimination (AUC: 0.985; specificity: 86.2%; sensitivity: 100%). Calibration plots for the probability of freedom from BCR at 1 and 2 years showed a good match between the prediction by the nomogram.

Conclusions

We constructed and validated a nomogram to predict the risk of BCR in PCa patients after nADT. This nomogram is a complement to the existing risk stratification systems for PCa, which could have marked implications for clinical decision-making for PCa patients after nADT.

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Title: Nomogram for predicting the biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy
Authors: Qi Sun
Yuan-Zhong Yang
Ping Yang
Yong-Hong Li
Yun Cao
Dong Chen
Yijun Zhang
Publication date: 12-06-2023
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Keywords: Prostate Cancer
Prostate Cancer
Androgens
Published in: International Urology and Nephrology / Issue 9/2023
Print ISSN: 0301-1623
Electronic ISSN: 1573-2584
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11255-023-03658-2

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