Development and validation of nomogram of peritoneal metastasis in gastric cancer based on simplified clinicopathological features and serum tumor markers

Peritoneal metastasis (PM) is not uncommon in patients with gastric cancer(GC), which affects clinical treatment decisions, but the relevant examination measures are not efficiently detected. Our goal was to develop a clinical radiomics nomogram to better predict peritoneal metastases.

A total of 3480 patients from 2 centers were divided into 1 training, 1 internal validation, and 1 external validation cohort(1949 in the internal training set, 704 in the validation set, and 827 in the external validation cohort) with clinicopathologically confirmed GC. We recruited 11 clinical factors, including age, sex, smoking status, tumor size, differentiation, Borrmann type, location, clinical T stage, and serum tumor markers (STMs) comprising carbohydrate antigen 19–9 (CA19-9), carbohydrate antigen 72–4 (CA72-4), and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), to develop the radiomics nomogram. For clinical predictive feature selection and the establishment of clinical models, statistical methods of analysis of variance (ANOVA), relief and recursive feature elimination (RFE) and logistic regression analysis were used. To develop combined predictive models, tumor diameter, type, and location, clinical T stage and STMs were finally selected. The discriminatory ability of the nomogram to predict PM was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) was conducted to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.

The AUC of the clinical models was 0.762 in the training cohorts, 0.772 in the internal validation cohort, and 0.758 in the external validation cohort. However, when combined with STMs, the AUC was improved to 0.806, 0.839 and 0.801, respectively. DCA showed that the combined nomogram was of good clinical evaluation value to predict PM in GC.

The present study proposed a clinical nomogram with a combination of clinical risk factors and radiomics features that can potentially be applied in the individualized preoperative prediction of PM in GC patients.