Top

Virology Journal

Published in:

Open Access 01-12-2022 | Vaccination | Research

COVID-19 epidemic in New York City: development of an age group-specific mathematical model to predict the outcome of various vaccination strategies

Authors: Miaolei Li, Jian Zu, Yue Zhang, Le Ma, Mingwang Shen, Zongfang Li, Fanpu Ji

Published in: Virology Journal | Issue 1/2022

Abstract

Background

Since December 14, 2020, New York City (NYC) has started the first batch of COVID-19 vaccines. However, the shortage of vaccines is currently an inevitable problem. Therefore, optimizing the age-specific COVID-19 vaccination is an important issue that needs to be addressed as a priority.

Objective

Combined with the reported COVID-19 data in NYC, this study aimed to construct a mathematical model with five age groups to estimate the impact of age-specific vaccination on reducing the prevalence of COVID-19.

Methods

We proposed an age-structured mathematical model and estimated the unknown parameters based on the method of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We also calibrated our model by using three different types of reported COVID-19 data in NYC. Moreover, we evaluated the reduced cumulative number of deaths and new infections with different vaccine allocation strategies.

Results

Compared with the current vaccination strategy in NYC, if we gradually increased the vaccination coverage rate for only one age groups from March 1, 2021 such that the vaccination coverage rate would reach to 40% by June 1, 2021, then as of June 1, 2021, the cumulative deaths in the 75–100 age group would be reduced the most, about 72 fewer deaths per increased 100,000 vaccinated individuals, and the cumulative new infections in the 0–17 age group would be reduced the most, about 21,591 fewer new infections per increased 100,000 vaccinated individuals. If we gradually increased the vaccination coverage rate for two age groups from March 1, 2021 such that the vaccination coverage rate would reach to 40% by June 1, 2021, then as of June 1, 2021, the cumulative deaths in the 65–100 age group would be reduced the most, about 36 fewer deaths per increased 100,000 vaccinated individuals, and the cumulative new infections in the 0–44 age group would be reduced the most, about 17,515 fewer new infections per increased 100,000 vaccinated individuals. In addition, if we had an additional 100,000 doses of vaccine for 0–17 and 75–100 age groups as of June 1, 2021, then the allocation of 80% to the 0–17 age group and 20% to the 75–100 age group would reduce the maximum numbers of new infections and deaths simultaneously in NYC.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 burden including deaths and new infections would decrease with increasing vaccination coverage rate. Priority vaccination to the elderly and adolescents would minimize both deaths and new infections.

Available only for authorised users

Chen YY, Assefa Y. The heterogeneity of the COVID-19 pandemic and national responses: an explanatory mixed-methods study. BMC Public Health. 2021;21(1):835. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10885-8.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Johns Hopkins University of Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center. COVID-19 dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). Jan 23, 2021. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Accessed 23 May 2021.

Yang J, Chen X, Deng X, Chen Z, Gong H, Yan H, et al. Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Nat Commun. 2020;11(1):5411. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19238-2.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Deng J, Zhou F, Hou W, Silver Z, Wong CY, Chang O, et al. The prevalence of depression, anxiety, and sleep disturbances in COVID-19 patients: a meta-analysis. Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2021;1486(1):90–111. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14506.CrossRefPubMed

Holmes EA, O’Connor RC, Perry VH, Tracey I, Wessely S, Arseneault L, et al. Multidisciplinary research priorities for the COVID-19 pandemic: a call for action for mental health science. Lancet Psychiatry. 2020;7(6):547–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2215-0366(20)30168-1.CrossRefPubMed

Kolahchi Z, De Domenico M, Uddin LQ, Cauda V, Grossmann I, Lacasa L, et al. COVID-19 and its global economic impact. Adv Exp Med Biol. 2021;1318:825–37. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63761-3_46.CrossRefPubMed

Ahmad T, Haroon BM, Hui J. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and economic impact. Pak J Med Sci. 2020;36:S73–8.PubMedPubMedCentral

Anjum S, Ullah R, Rana MS, Khan HA, Memon FS, Ahmed Y, et al. COVID-19 pandemic: a serious threat for public mental health globally. Psychiatr Danub. 2020;32(2):245–50.CrossRefPubMed

Wang R, Zhang Q, Ge J, Ren W, Zhang R, Lan J, et al. Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variant mutations reveals neutralization escape mechanisms and the ability to use ACE2 receptors from additional species. Immunity. 2021;54(7):1611–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.immuni.2021.06.003.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

10.

World Health Organization: tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants. https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/.

11.

New York's first COVID-19 vaccine begins. https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-12-14-%0A---new-york-s-first-covid-19-vaccine-begins%0A--.S1rDn-urnD.html.

12.

NY faces COVID vaccine shortage as demand continues to outpace supply. https://abc7ny.com/javitscenter-nyc-covid-vaccine-shortage-ny-coronavirus/9963245/.

13.

NYC closing 15 COVID-19 vaccination hubs due supply shortage. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/nyc-closing-15-covid-19-vaccination-hubs-due-supply-shortage/ar-BB1cWd2S.

14.

Burgos RM, Badowski ME, Drwiega E, Ghassemi S, Griffith N, Herald F, et al. The race to a COVID-19 vaccine: opportunities and challenges in development and distribution. Drugs Context. 2021. https://doi.org/10.7573/dic.2020-12-2.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

15.

Haeder SF. Joining the herd? US public opinion and vaccination requirements across educational settings during the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccine. 2021;39(17):2375–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.03.055.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

16.

Acuña-Zegarra MA, Díaz-Infante S, Baca-Carrasco D, Olmos-Liceaga D. COVID-19 optimal vaccination policies: a modeling study on efficacy, natural and vaccine-induced immunity responses. Math Biosci. 2021;337:108614. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108614.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

17.

Libotte GB, Lobato FS, Platt GM, Silva Neto AJ. Determination of an optimal control strategy for vaccine administration in COVID-19 pandemic treatment. Comput Methods Programs Biomed. 2020;196:105664. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cmpb.2020.105664.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

18.

Choi Y, Kim JS, Kim JE, Choi H, Lee CH. Vaccination prioritization strategies for COVID-19 in Korea: a mathematical modeling approach. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021;18(8):4240. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18084240.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

19.

Matrajt L, Eaton J, Leung T, Brown ER. Vaccine optimization for COVID-19: Who to vaccinate first? Sci Adv. 2021;7(6):eabf1374. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf1374.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

20.

Iboi EA, Ngonghala CN, Gumel AB. Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the US? Infect Dis Model. 2020;5:510–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.07.006.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

21.

Shen M, Zu J, Fairley CK, Pagán JA, An L, Du Z, et al. Projected COVID-19 epidemic in the United States in the context of the effectiveness of a potential vaccine and implications for social distancing and face mask use. Vaccine. 2021;39(16):2295–302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.02.056.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

22.

Bubar KM, Reinholt K, Kissler SM, Lipsitch M, Cobey S, Grad YH, et al. Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus. Science. 2021;371(6532):916–21. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe6959.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

23.

Foy BH, Wahl B, Mehta K, Shet A, Menon GI, Britto C. Comparing COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategies in India: a mathematical modelling study. Int J Infect Dis. 2021;103:431–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.12.075.CrossRefPubMed

24.

Buckner JH, Chowell G, Springborn MR. Dynamic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2021;118(16):e2025786118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2025786118.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

25.

NYC Health. 2020. COVID-19 Data. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-archive.page.

26.

NYC Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Data. https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data.

27.

West AP, Barnes CO, Yang Z, Bjorkman PJ. SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.526 emerging in the New York region detected by software utility created to query the spike mutational landscape [preprint]. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043.

28.

Annavajhala MK, Hiroshi M, Jason EZ, Sheng ZZ, Wang PF, Angela GS, et al. A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, B.1.526, identified in New York [preprint]. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259.

29.

Spread of Variants in NYC. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-variants.page.

30.

Van R, Don PC, Scott DB. A simple introduction to Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling. Psychon Bull Rev. 2018;25(1):143–54. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-016-1015-8.CrossRef

31.

Hamra G, MacLehose R, Richardson D. Markov chain Monte Carlo: an introduction for epidemiologists. Int J Epidemiol. 2013;42(2):627–34. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyt043.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

32.

Apenteng OO, Ismail NA. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate AIDS after HIV infection. PLoS ONE. 2015;10(7):e0131950. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0131950.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

33.

Woodworth KR, Moulia D, Collins JP, Hadler SC, Jones JM, Reddy SC, et al. The advisory committee on immunization practices’interim recommendation for use of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in children aged 5–11 years -United States, November 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2021;70(45):1579–83.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

34.

Walter EB, Talaat KR, Sabharwal C, Gurtman A, Lockhart S, Paulsen GC, et al. Evaluation of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine in children 5 to 11 years of age. N Engl J Med. 2022;386(1):35–46. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2116298.CrossRefPubMed

35.

Luxi N, Giovanazzi A, Capuano A, Crisafulli S, Cutroneo PM, Fantini MP, et al. COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy, paediatrics, immunocompromised patients, and persons with history of allergy or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection: Overview of current recommendations and pre- and post-marketing evidence for vaccine efficacy and safety. Drug Saf. 2021;44(12):1247–69. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40264-021-01131-6.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

36.

Hall VJ, Foulkes S, Charlett A, Atti A, Monk EJM, Simmons R, et al. SIREN Study Group—SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN). Lancet. 2021;397(10283):1459–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00675-9.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

37.

Hansen CH, Michlmayr D, Gubbels SM, Mølbak K, Ethelberg S. Assessment of protection against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 among 4 million PCR-tested individuals in Denmark in 2020: a population-level observational study. Lancet. 2021;397(10280):1204–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00575-4.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

38.

Sheehan MM, Reddy AJ, Rothberg MB. Reinfection rates among patients who previously tested positive for COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study. Clin Infect Dis. 2021;73(10):1882–6. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab234.CrossRefPubMed

39.

Pilz S, Chakeri A, Ioannidis JP, Richter L, Theiler-Schwetz V, Trummer C, et al. SARS-CoV-2 re-infection risk in Austria. Eur J Clin Invest. 2021;51(4):e13520. https://doi.org/10.1111/eci.13520.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

40.

Kupferschmidt K. Where did 'weird' Omicron come from? Science. 2021;374(6572):1179. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.acx9738.

Title: COVID-19 epidemic in New York City: development of an age group-specific mathematical model to predict the outcome of various vaccination strategies
Authors: Miaolei Li
Jian Zu
Yue Zhang
Le Ma
Mingwang Shen
Zongfang Li
Fanpu Ji
Publication date: 01-12-2022
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Vaccination
COVID-19
Published in: Virology Journal / Issue 1/2022
Electronic ISSN: 1743-422X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12985-022-01771-9

ACC 2024 Congress Coverage

Heart Failure Video

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

COVID-19 epidemic in New York City: development of an age group-specific mathematical model to predict the outcome of various vaccination strategies

Abstract

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

ACC 2024 Congress Coverage

Year in Review: Heart failure and cardiomyopathies

Semaglutide benefits people with type 2 diabetes and obesity-related heart failure

Incentivised to exercise

New intervention for STEMI-related cardiogenic shock

» View more highlights on the ACC 2024 congress hub page

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Please log in to get access to this content

Other articles of this Issue 1/2022

The molecular mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 evading host antiviral innate immunity

NSAID use and clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients: a 38-center retrospective cohort study

Human papillomavirus prevalence and genotype distribution landscapes in Shannan City, Tibet Tibetan Autonomous Region, China

Reverse transcription recombinase-aided amplification assay for H5 subtype avian influenza virus

Clinical evaluation of a fully automated and high-throughput molecular testing system for detection of influenza virus

The association between sPD-1 levels versus liver biochemistry and viral markers in chronic hepatitis B patients: a comparative study of different sPD-1 assays

ACC 2024 Congress Coverage

Year in Review: Heart failure and cardiomyopathies

Semaglutide benefits people with type 2 diabetes and obesity-related heart failure

Incentivised to exercise

New intervention for STEMI-related cardiogenic shock

» View more highlights on the ACC 2024 congress hub page