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Open Access 01-12-2022 | Long-COVID Syndrome | Research article

Predictive model for long COVID in children 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test

Authors: Manjula D. Nugawela, Terence Stephenson, Roz Shafran, Bianca L. De Stavola, Shamez N. Ladhani, Ruth Simmons, Kelsey McOwat, Natalia Rojas, Emma Dalrymple, Emily Y. Cheung, Tamsin Ford, Isobel Heyman, Esther Crawley, Snehal M. Pinto Pereira

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2022

Abstract

Background

To update and internally validate a model to predict children and young people (CYP) most likely to experience long COVID (i.e. at least one impairing symptom) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing and to determine whether the impact of predictors differed by SARS-CoV-2 status.

Methods

Data from a nationally matched cohort of SARS-CoV-2 test-positive and test-negative CYP aged 11–17 years was used. The main outcome measure, long COVID, was defined as one or more impairing symptoms 3 months after PCR testing. Potential pre-specified predictors included SARS-CoV-2 status, sex, age, ethnicity, deprivation, quality of life/functioning (five EQ-5D-Y items), physical and mental health and loneliness (prior to testing) and number of symptoms at testing. The model was developed using logistic regression; performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination measures; internal validation was performed via bootstrapping and the final model was adjusted for overfitting.

Results

A total of 7139 (3246 test-positives, 3893 test-negatives) completing a questionnaire 3 months post-test were included. 25.2% (817/3246) of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positives and 18.5% (719/3893) of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-negatives had one or more impairing symptoms 3 months post-test. The final model contained SARS-CoV-2 status, number of symptoms at testing, sex, age, ethnicity, physical and mental health, loneliness and four EQ-5D-Y items before testing. Internal validation showed minimal overfitting with excellent calibration and discrimination measures (optimism-adjusted calibration slope: 0.96575; C-statistic: 0.83130).

Conclusions

We updated a risk prediction equation to identify those most at risk of long COVID 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test which could serve as a useful triage and management tool for CYP during the ongoing pandemic. External validation is required before large-scale implementation.

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Title: Predictive model for long COVID in children 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test
Authors: Manjula D. Nugawela
Terence Stephenson
Roz Shafran
Bianca L. De Stavola
Shamez N. Ladhani
Ruth Simmons
Kelsey McOwat
Natalia Rojas
Emma Dalrymple
Emily Y. Cheung
Tamsin Ford
Isobel Heyman
Esther Crawley
Snehal M. Pinto Pereira
Publication date: 01-12-2022
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Long-COVID Syndrome
SARS-CoV-2
Published in: BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2022
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02664-y

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on sleep in brain health

Springer Medicine

Predictive model for long COVID in children 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on sleep in brain health

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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