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BMC Medicine
Published in: BMC Medicine 1/2022

Open Access 01-12-2022 | Stroke | Research article

Retinal age gap as a predictive biomarker of stroke risk

Authors: Zhuoting Zhu, Wenyi Hu, Ruiye Chen, Ruilin Xiong, Wei Wang, Xianwen Shang, Yifan Chen, Katerina Kiburg, Danli Shi, Shuang He, Yu Huang, Xueli Zhang, Shulin Tang, Jieshan Zeng, Honghua Yu, Xiaohong Yang, Mingguang He

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2022

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Abstract

Background

The aim of this study is to investigate the association of retinal age gap with the risk of incident stroke and its predictive value for incident stroke.

Methods

A total of 80,169 fundus images from 46,969 participants in the UK Biobank cohort met the image quality standard. A deep learning model was constructed based on 19,200 fundus images of 11,052 disease-free participants at baseline for age prediction. Retinal age gap (retinal age predicted based on the fundus image minus chronological age) was generated for the remaining 35,917 participants. Stroke events were determined by data linkage to hospital records on admissions and diagnoses, and national death registers, whichever occurred earliest. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the effect of retinal age gap on risk of stroke. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the predictive value of retinal age and well-established risk factors in 10-year stroke risk.

Results

A total of 35,304 participants without history of stroke at baseline were included. During a median follow-up of 5.83 years, 282 (0.80%) participants had stroke events. In the fully adjusted model, each one-year increase in the retinal age gap was associated with a 4% increase in the risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00–1.08, P = 0.029). Compared to participants with retinal age gap in the first quintile, participants with retinal age gap in the fifth quintile had significantly higher risks of stroke events (HR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.37–4.10, P = 0.002). The predictive capability of retinal age alone was comparable to the well-established risk factor-based model (AUC=0.676 vs AUC=0.661, p=0.511).

Conclusions

We found that retinal age gap was significantly associated with incident stroke, implying the potential of retinal age gap as a predictive biomarker of stroke risk.
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Metadata
Title
Retinal age gap as a predictive biomarker of stroke risk
Authors
Zhuoting Zhu
Wenyi Hu
Ruiye Chen
Ruilin Xiong
Wei Wang
Xianwen Shang
Yifan Chen
Katerina Kiburg
Danli Shi
Shuang He
Yu Huang
Xueli Zhang
Shulin Tang
Jieshan Zeng
Honghua Yu
Xiaohong Yang
Mingguang He
Publication date
01-12-2022
Publisher
BioMed Central
Keywords
Stroke
Biomarkers
Published in
BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2022
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02620-w

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