Evaluation of unplanned dialysis as a predictor of mortality in elderly dialysis patients: a retrospective data analysis

Increasing numbers of elderly patients are undergoing long-term dialysis. However, the role of dialysis in survival and quality of life is unclear, and poor outcomes may be associated with comorbidities rather than with age only. The initiation of unplanned dialysis in elderly patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been reported to be associated with poor survival. We evaluated patient and practice factors associated with poor survival.

We performed a retrospective analysis of 90 consecutive elderly patients (≥75 years) with CKD initiated on long-term dialysis at our renal unit between October 2010 and February 2014. Six patients were excluded; data from 84 remaining patients (≥75 years) with end-stage renal disease undergoing planned or unplanned dialysis were analyzed. Patients were followed up until death or January 2015. Patient factors such as age at initiation of dialysis and comorbidities (i.e., diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease [IHD], peripheral vascular disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and cognitive dysfunction) were analyzed. Practice factors such as planned or unplanned initiation of dialysis were compared in relation to survival outcomes. “Unplanned dialysis” was defined as a patient with known CKD stage 4 or 5 who had not been evaluated by a nephrologist in the 3 months before dialysis initiation.

The average age at dialysis initiation was 81.5 ± 4.5 years), serum albumin level was 24.8 ± 6 g/L, body mass index was 22.5 ± 4.8 kg/m², and glycated hemoglobin A1c level was 6.3 ± 1.3. Overall, 51 (61%) and 33 (39%) patients underwent unplanned and planned dialysis, respectively. On univariate analysis, the presence of IHD, peripheral vascular disease, ≥3 comorbidities, and unplanned initiation of dialysis were significantly related to death. On multivariate analysis, unplanned start of dialysis, ischemic heart diseases and peripheral vascular disease remained significant. Survival rates at 3 and 12 months were 38.6% vs. 90.9% and 14.4% vs. 73.6% for unplanned vs. planned dialysis, respectively (p < 0.001). Unplanned dialysis was significantly associated with greater mortality.

In elderly dialysis patients, unplanned start of dialysis was associated with poor survival. Patient characteristics such as associated peripheral vascular disease and IHD were associated with poor survival.