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Journal of Medical Systems
Published in: Journal of Medical Systems 7/2016

01-07-2016 | Systems-Level Quality Improvement

Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow

Authors: Mohamed Afilal, Farouk Yalaoui, Frédéric Dugardin, Lionel Amodeo, David Laplanche, Philippe Blua

Published in: Journal of Medical Systems | Issue 7/2016

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Abstract

Emergency department (ED) have become the patient’s main point of entrance in modern hospitals causing it frequent overcrowding, thus hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to the ED in order to provide better quality service for patients. One of the key elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. In this case, forecasting patients flow, which will help decision makers to optimize human (doctors, nurses…) and material(beds, boxs…) resources allocation. The main interest of this research is forecasting daily attendance at an emergency department. The study was conducted on the Emergency Department of Troyes city hospital center, France, in which we propose a new practical ED patients classification that consolidate the CCMU and GEMSA categories into one category and innovative time-series based models to forecast long and short term daily attendance. The models we developed for this case study shows very good performances (up to 91,24 % for the annual Total flow forecast) and robustness to epidemic periods.
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Metadata
Title
Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow
Authors
Mohamed Afilal
Farouk Yalaoui
Frédéric Dugardin
Lionel Amodeo
David Laplanche
Philippe Blua
Publication date
01-07-2016
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Journal of Medical Systems / Issue 7/2016
Print ISSN: 0148-5598
Electronic ISSN: 1573-689X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10916-016-0527-0

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