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Breast Cancer Research and Treatment

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Open Access 01-08-2017 | Epidemiology

Family history and risk of breast cancer: an analysis accounting for family structure

Authors: Hannah R. Brewer, Michael E. Jones, Minouk J. Schoemaker, Alan Ashworth, Anthony J. Swerdlow

Published in: Breast Cancer Research and Treatment | Issue 1/2017

Abstract

Purpose

Family history is an important risk factor for breast cancer incidence, but the parameters conventionally used to categorize it are based solely on numbers and/or ages of breast cancer cases in the family and take no account of the size and age-structure of the woman’s family.

Methods

Using data from the Generations Study, a cohort of over 113,000 women from the general UK population, we analyzed breast cancer risk in relation to first-degree family history using a family history score (FHS) that takes account of the expected number of family cases based on the family’s age-structure and national cancer incidence rates.

Results

Breast cancer risk increased significantly (P _trend < 0.0001) with greater FHS. There was a 3.5-fold (95% CI 2.56–4.79) range of risk between the lowest and highest FHS groups, whereas women who had two or more relatives with breast cancer, the strongest conventional familial risk factor, had a 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.83–3.47) increase in risk. Using likelihood ratio tests, the best model for determining breast cancer risk due to family history was that combining FHS and age of relative at diagnosis.

Conclusions

A family history score based on expected as well as observed breast cancers in a family can give greater risk discrimination on breast cancer incidence than conventional parameters based solely on cases in affected relatives. Our modeling suggests that a yet stronger predictor of risk might be a combination of this score and age at diagnosis in relatives.

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Title: Family history and risk of breast cancer: an analysis accounting for family structure
Authors: Hannah R. Brewer
Michael E. Jones
Minouk J. Schoemaker
Alan Ashworth
Anthony J. Swerdlow
Publication date: 01-08-2017
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: Breast Cancer Research and Treatment / Issue 1/2017
Print ISSN: 0167-6806
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7217
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-017-4325-2

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