A nomogram based on mammary ductoscopic indicators for evaluating the risk of breast cancer in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge

Mammary ductoscopy (MD) is commonly used to detect intraductal lesions associated with nipple discharge. This study investigated the relationships between ductoscopic image-based indicators and breast cancer risk, and developed a nomogram for evaluating breast cancer risk in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge. A total of 879 consecutive inpatients (916 breasts) with nipple discharge who underwent selective duct excision for intraductal neoplasms detected by MD from June 2008 to April 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. A nomogram was developed using a multivariate logistic regression model based on data from a training set (687 cases) and validated in an independent validation set (229 cases). A Youden-derived cut-off value was assigned to the nomogram for the diagnosis of breast cancer. Color of discharge, location, appearance, and surface of neoplasm, and morphology of ductal wall were independent predictors for breast cancer in multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram based on these predictors performed well. The P value of the Hosmer–Lemeshow test for the prediction model was 0.36. Area under the curve values of 0.812 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.763–0.860) and 0.738 (95 % CI 0.635–0.841) was obtained in the training and validation sets, respectively. The accuracies of the nomogram for breast cancer diagnosis were 71.2 % in the training set and 75.5 % in the validation set. We developed a nomogram for evaluating breast cancer risk in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge based on MD image findings. This model may aid individual risk assessment and guide treatment in clinical practice.