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01-01-2022 | Original Article

Incidence and prediction nomogram for metabolic syndrome in a middle-aged Vietnamese population: a 5-year follow-up study

Authors: Tran Quang Thuyen, Dinh Hong Duong, Bui Thi Thuy Nga, Nguyen Anh Ngoc, Duong Tuan Linh, Pham Tran Phuong, Bui Thi Nhung, Tran Quang Binh

Published in: Endocrine | Issue 1/2022

Abstract

Purpose

We aimed to determine the incidence and prediction nomogram for new-onset metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a middle-aged Vietnamese population.

Methods

A population-based prospective study was conducted in 1150 participants aged 40–64 years without MetS at baseline and followed-up for 5 years. Data on lifestyle factors, socioeconomic status, family diabetes history, and anthropometric measures were collected. MetS incidence was estimated in general population and subgroup of age, gender, and MetS components. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for MetS. A prediction nomogram was developed and checked for discrimination and calibration.

Results

During median follow-up of 5.14 years, the accumulate MetS incidence rate was 23.4% (95% CI: 22.2–24.7). The annual incidence rate (95% CI) was 52.9 (46.7–60.1) per 1000 person-years in general population and higher in women [56.6 (48.7–65.9)] than men [46.5 (36.9–59.3)]. The HRs (95% CI) for developing MetS were gender [females vs males: 2.04 (1.26–3.29)], advanced age [1.02 (1.01–1.04) per one year], waist circumference [1.08 (1.06–1.10) per one cm] and other obesity-related traits, and systolic blood pressure [1.02 (1.01–1.03) per one mmHg]. The prediction nomogram for MetS had a good discrimination (C-statistics = 0.742) and fit calibration (mean absolute error = 0.009) with a positive net benefit in the predicted probability thresholds between 0.13 and 0.70.

Conclusions

The study is the first to indicate an alarmingly high incidence of MetS in a middle-aged population in Vietnam. The nomogram with simply applicable variables would be useful to qualify individual risk of developing MetS.

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Title: Incidence and prediction nomogram for metabolic syndrome in a middle-aged Vietnamese population: a 5-year follow-up study
Authors: Tran Quang Thuyen
Dinh Hong Duong
Bui Thi Thuy Nga
Nguyen Anh Ngoc
Duong Tuan Linh
Pham Tran Phuong
Bui Thi Nhung
Tran Quang Binh
Publication date: 01-01-2022
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: Endocrine / Issue 1/2022
Print ISSN: 1355-008X
Electronic ISSN: 1559-0100
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-021-02836-5

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Abstract

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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