Published in:
01-09-2018 | Original Article
Establishment of a Gallbladder Cancer-Specific Survival Model to Predict Prognosis in Non-metastatic Gallbladder Cancer Patients After Surgical Resection
Published in: Digestive Diseases and Sciences | Issue 9/2018
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Background
Gallbladder cancer is an invasive cancer with a discouraging prognosis, and early detection and active intervention are of great value.
Aims
To establish a more accurate and effective survival model to predict the prognosis of patients with non-metastatic gallbladder after surgical resection.
Methods
A retrospective analysis was conducted in non-metastatic gallbladder cancer patients who were registered in the surveillance, epidemiology and end results database from 2010 to 2014. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were performed for the related factors that might affect the gallbladder cancer-specific survival. A prognostic gallbladder cancer-specific survival model was established using the nomogram tool. The discrimination test was measured by the c-index, and the conformance test was performed by a calibration curve.
Results
In all, 1422 patients with non-metastatic gallbladder cancer were identified. The prognostic factors include age, gender, lymph node dissection, postoperative chemotherapy, tumor size, histological grading, pT stage and pN stage. The gallbladder cancer-specific survival model was established based on the prognostic factors. The model’s c-index was 0.775, and the 7th AJCC staging c-index was 0.649. The calibration curves showed a good correlation between prediction and actual survival.
Conclusions
This study established the gallbladder cancer-specific survival model successfully. Compared with the 7th AJCC stage, this model refined the contribution of the pT stage, pN stage and other related factors and was demonstrated to be more accurate and reliable. More importantly, this model may allow clinicians to screen patients with a poor prognosis for closer follow-up or adjuvant treatment.