Published in:
Open Access 01-12-2021 | Computed Tomography | Research
Clinical-radiological predictive model in differential diagnosis of small (≤ 20 mm) solitary pulmonary nodules
Published in: BMC Pulmonary Medicine | Issue 1/2021
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Background
There is a lack of clinical-radiological predictive models for the small (≤ 20 mm) solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs). We aim to establish a clinical-radiological predictive model for differentiating malignant and benign small SPNs.
Materials and methods
Between January 2013 and December 2018, a retrospective cohort of 250 patients with small SPNs was used to construct the predictive model. A second retrospective cohort of 101 patients treated between January 2019 and December 2020 was used to independently test the model. The model was also compared to two other models that had previously been identified.
Results
In the training group, 250 patients with small SPNs including 156 (62.4%) malignant SPNs and 94 (37.6%) benign SPNs patients were included. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that older age, pleural retraction sign, CT bronchus sign, and higher CEA level were the risk factors of malignant small SPNs. The predictive model was established as: X = − 10.111 + [0.129 × age (y)] + [1.214 × pleural retraction sign (present = 1; no present = 0)] + [0.985 × CT bronchus sign (present = 1; no present = 0)] + [0.21 × CEA level (ug/L)]. Our model had a significantly higher region under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (0.870; 50% CI: 0.828–0.913) than the other two models.
Conclusions
We established and validated a predictive model for estimating the pre-test probability of malignant small SPNs, that can help physicians to choose and interpret the outcomes of subsequent diagnostic tests.