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Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine
Published in: Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine 1/2018

Open Access 01-12-2018 | Research article

Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis

Authors: Peng Guan, Wei Wu, Desheng Huang

Published in: Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine | Issue 1/2018

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Abstract

Background

The main objective of this study was to describe the temporal distribution of monthly reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China and develop an appropriate time series model for short-term extrapolation forecast.

Methods

Surveillance data of the monthly reported human brucellosis cases occurring from April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, in mainland China were obtained. The spectrum analysis was first adopted to find the cyclic and seasonal features, the existence of the seasonality and trend was determined by exponential smoothing method and the seasonal-trend decomposition. The candidate models of exponential smoothing included the additive model and multiplicative model; R2 was selected as the indicator for the selection of candidate model, and the stability of the model was verified by adjusting the training data and test data set. Finally, the extrapolations of monthly incident human brucellosis cases in 2017 were made.

Results

From April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, a total of 435,108 cases of Brucellosis occurred in mainland China were reported, with an average of 3626 cases per month and a standard deviation of 1834 cases. The R2 of the exponential smoothing method that based on additive model increased steadily from 0.927 to 0.949 with the increase of the data volume. Ten of 12 actual values fell in the confidence interval of predicted value.

Conclusions

Human brucellosis cases peaked during the months from March to August in mainland China, with clear seasonality. The exponential smoothing based on the additive model method could be effectively used in the time series analysis of human brucellosis in China. Control methods, such as vaccination, quarantine, elimination of infected animals, and good hygiene within the production cycle, should be strengthened with paying more attention to the seasonality. Further research is warranted to explore the drivers behind the seasonality.
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Metadata
Title
Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis
Authors
Peng Guan
Wei Wu
Desheng Huang
Publication date
01-12-2018
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine / Issue 1/2018
Print ISSN: 1342-078X
Electronic ISSN: 1347-4715
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12199-018-0712-5

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