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BMC Infectious Diseases
Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases 1/2017

Open Access 01-12-2017 | Research article

The influence of climatic factors on the development of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and leptospirosis during the peak season in Korea: an ecologic study

Authors: Yadav Prasad Joshi, Eun-Hye Kim, Hae-Kwan Cheong

Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases | Issue 1/2017

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Abstract

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and leptospirosis are seasonal rodent-borne infections in the Republic of Korea (Korea). The occurrences of HFRS and leptospirosis are influenced by climatic variability. However, few studies have examined the effects of local climatic variables on the development of these infections. The purpose of this study was to estimate the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of HFRS and leptospirosis in Korea.

Methods

Daily records on human cases of HFRS and leptospirosis between January 2001 to December 2009 were analyzed. The associations of climatic factors with these cases in high incidence provinces were estimated using the time-series method and multivariate generalized linear Poisson models with a maximal lag of 12 weeks.

Results

From 2001 to 2009, a total of 2912 HFRS and 889 leptospirosis cases were reported, with overall incidences of 0.67 and 0.21 cases per 100,000, respectively, in the study areas. The increase in minimum temperature (1 °C) at a lag of 11 weeks was associated with 17.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 15.1, 20.6%] and 22.7% (95% CI: 16.5, 29.3%) increases in HFRS and leptospirosis cases, respectively. A 1-h increase in the daily sunshine was related to a 27.5% (95% CI: 18.2, 37.6%) increase in HFRS at a lag of 0 week. A 1% increase in daily minimum relative humidity and a 1 mm increase in daily rainfall were associated with 4.0% (95% CI:1.8, 6.1) and 2.0% (95% CI: 1.2, 2.8%) increases in weekly leptospirosis cases at 11 and 6 weeks later, respectively. A 1 mJ/m2 increase in daily solar radiation was associated with a 13.7% (95% CI: 4.9, 23.2%) increase in leptospirosis cases, maximized at a 2-week lag.

Conclusions

During the peak season in Korea, climatic factors play a significant role in the development of HFRS and leptospirosis. The findings of this study may be applicable to the forecasting and prediction of disease outbreaks.
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Metadata
Title
The influence of climatic factors on the development of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and leptospirosis during the peak season in Korea: an ecologic study
Authors
Yadav Prasad Joshi
Eun-Hye Kim
Hae-Kwan Cheong
Publication date
01-12-2017
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Infectious Diseases / Issue 1/2017
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2334
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2506-6

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