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01-06-2021 | Editorial

Short time horizons for fracture prediction tools: time for a rethink

Authors: E. V. McCloskey, F. Borgstrom, C. Cooper, N. C. Harvey, M. K. Javaid, M. Lorentzon, J. A. Kanis

Published in: Osteoporosis International | Issue 6/2021

Excerpt

Prior fragility fracture is a well-established risk factor for a future fracture [1‐4]. The population relative risk of having a subsequent hip fracture or other osteoporotic fracture is approximately 2-fold higher for most types of prior fracture. However, many studies suggest that the increase in risk is not constant with time or age. Indeed, the risk of a subsequent osteoporotic fracture is particularly acute immediately after an index fracture and wanes progressively over the next 2 years [4‐9] but thereafter remains higher than that of the general population (Fig. 1). The early phase of particularly high risk has been termed imminent risk [9]. This transiency, which is not currently accommodated in any of the available fracture risk assessment tools, suggests that treatment given to patients immediately after a fracture might avoid a higher number of new fractures compared with treatment given at a later date. …

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Title: Short time horizons for fracture prediction tools: time for a rethink
Authors: E. V. McCloskey
F. Borgstrom
C. Cooper
N. C. Harvey
M. K. Javaid
M. Lorentzon
J. A. Kanis
Publication date: 01-06-2021
Publisher: Springer London
Published in: Osteoporosis International / Issue 6/2021
Print ISSN: 0937-941X
Electronic ISSN: 1433-2965
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-021-05962-y

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Short time horizons for fracture prediction tools: time for a rethink

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