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BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
Published in: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 1/2023

Open Access 01-12-2023 | Septicemia | Research

A nomogram for predicting sepsis-associated delirium: a retrospective study in MIMIC III

Authors: Qiong Gu, Shucong Yang, DanTing Fei, Yuting Lu, Huijie Yu

Published in: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making | Issue 1/2023

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Abstract

Objective

To develop a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of sepsis-associated delirium (SAD).

Materials and methods

Data from a total of 642 patients were retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC III) database to build a prediction model. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors and establish a nomogram to predict the occurrence of SAD. The performance of the nomogram was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration by bootstrapping with 1000 resamples.

Results

Multivariate logistic regression identified 4 independent predictors for patients with SAD, including Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA) (p = 0.004; OR: 1.131; 95% CI 1.040 to 1.231), mechanical ventilation (P < 0.001; OR: 3.710; 95% CI 2.452 to 5.676), phosphate (P = 0.047; OR: 1.165; 95% CI 1.003 to 1.358), and lactate (P = 0.023; OR: 1.135; 95% CI 1.021 to 1.270) within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0.742 in the training set and 0.713 in the validation set. The Hosmer − Lemeshow test showed that the model was a good fit (p = 0.471). The calibration curve of the predictive model was close to the ideal curve in both the training and validation sets. The DCA curve also showed that the predictive nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusion

We constructed a nomogram for the personalized prediction of delirium in sepsis patients, which had satisfactory performance and clinical utility and thus could help clinicians identify patients with SAD in a timely manner, perform early intervention, and improve their neurological outcomes.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
A nomogram for predicting sepsis-associated delirium: a retrospective study in MIMIC III
Authors
Qiong Gu
Shucong Yang
DanTing Fei
Yuting Lu
Huijie Yu
Publication date
01-12-2023
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making / Issue 1/2023
Electronic ISSN: 1472-6947
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-023-02282-5

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