Prediction of Subsequent Vertebral Fracture After Acute Osteoporotic Fractures from Clinical and Paraspinal Muscle Features

To construct a nomogram based on clinical factors and paraspinal muscle features to predict vertebral fractures occurring after acute osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF). We retrospectively enrolled 307 patients with acute OVCF between January 2013 and August 2022, and performed magnetic resonance imaging of the L3/4 and L4/5 intervertebral discs (IVDs) to estimate the cross-sectional area (CSA) and degree of fatty infiltration (FI) of the paraspinal muscles. We also collected clinical and radiographic data. We used univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that should be included in the predictive nomogram. Post-OVCF vertebral fracture occurred within 3, 12, and 24 months in 33, 69, and 98 out of the 307 patients (10.8%, 22.5%, and 31.9%, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that this event was associated with percutaneous vertebroplasty treatment, higher FI at the L3/4 IVD levels of the psoas muscle, and lower relative CSA of functional muscle at the L4/5 IVD levels of the multifidus muscle. Area under the curve values for subsequent vertebral fracture at 3, 12, and 24 months were 0.711, 0.724, and 0.737, respectively, indicating remarkable accuracy of the nomogram. We developed a model for predicting post-OVCF vertebral fracture from diagnostic information about prescribed treatment, FI at the L3/4 IVD levels of the psoas muscle, and relative CSA of functional muscle at the L4/5 IVD levels of the multifidus muscle. This model could facilitate personalized predictions and preventive strategies.