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Israel Journal of Health Policy Research
Published in: Israel Journal of Health Policy Research 1/2015

Open Access 01-12-2015 | Original research article

Models for projecting supply and demand for nurses in Israel

Authors: Nurit Nirel, Orli Grinstien-Cohen, Yonatan Eyal, Hadar Samuel, Assaf Ben-Shoham

Published in: Israel Journal of Health Policy Research | Issue 1/2015

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Abstract

Background

Concern is growing over serious shortages in the nursing workforce and imbalance between supply and demand. Projections indicate that the demand for the nursing workforce will increase due to the aging population and an increase of the percentage of elderly people requiring assistance.

Study goals

To examine the expected balance between supply and several demand projections for nurses in Israel in order to contribute to planning the nursing workforce.

Methods

1. Open interviews with key figures in the healthcare and nursing care systems; 2. Examination of supply and demand for nurses; 3. Examination of the balance between supply and demand projections.

Main findings

A considerable gap was found between the supply and demand projections for registered nurses, which will increase over time according to each of the demand projection models up to 2030. All of the models indicate that the projected shortage will be significantly affected by the age at which the nurses retire. Models based on a fixed ratio of nurses or infrastructure (beds, positions) per population show a particularly great gap between demand and supply. However, a more conservative model (based on hospital utilization), that takes the system's infrastructures and limitations, as well as the growing population and changes in its composition into account, without an increase in the direct ratio of the number of nurses, also predict a significant shortage of nurses within 20 years.

Conclusions

The gaps between the demand and supply projections indicate the need to augment the workforce in addition to the steps currently taken to recruit nursing staff and increase the number of training institutions for nurses. The relatively simple supply prediction models, which are based on available sources of information that can be easily revised, will make it possible to monitor and update projections regularly over time. The models developed in this study should help the process of long-term strategic planning for the number of nurses in Israel.
Footnotes
1
The term nursing workforce includes professionals who have undergone different training programs to provide nursing care in the health service, including, registered nurses with different levels of training (graduates of 3-year training programs, academic programs, and retraining programs), practical nurses (since 2007, there has been no further training of practical nurses. However, according to a decision by the Ministry of Health of 30.4.2014 training of practical nurses will be renewed) ,and auxiliary staff, most of whom have undergone a short training program enabling them to work in hospital departments.
2Calculation of the demand projections for nurses in the community: In these projections, we applied the coefficient for the employment of nurses in the health plans in 2010 (weighted average of the ratio of nurses per health plan member) and coefficient for the employment of nurses in the public health system (mother and child clinics and student health), to the standard future population (per capita). The formula for demand projections in the community is as follows (Fig. 6):
 
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Metadata
Title
Models for projecting supply and demand for nurses in Israel
Authors
Nurit Nirel
Orli Grinstien-Cohen
Yonatan Eyal
Hadar Samuel
Assaf Ben-Shoham
Publication date
01-12-2015
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Israel Journal of Health Policy Research / Issue 1/2015
Electronic ISSN: 2045-4015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13584-015-0043-6

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