Short-term predictors of stereotactic radiosurgery outcome for untreated single non-small cell lung cancer brain metastases: a restrospective cohort study

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is an option for brain metastases (BM) not eligible for surgical resection, however, predictors of SRS outcomes are poorly known. The aim of this study is to investigate predictors of SRS outcome in patients with BM secondary to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The secondary objective is to analyze the value of volumetric criteria in identifying BM progression. This retrospective cohort study included patients >18 years of age with a single untreated BM secondary to NSCLC. Demographic, clinical, and radiological data were assessed. The primary outcome was treatment failure, defined as a BM volumetric increase 12 months after SRS. The unidimensional measurement of the BM at follow-up was also assessed. One hundred thirty-five patients were included, with a median BM volume at baseline of 1.1 cm³ (IQR 0.4–2.3). Fifty-two (38.5%) patients had SRS failure at follow-up. Only right BM laterality was associated with SRS failure (p=0.039). Using the volumetric definition of SRS failure, the unidimensional criteria demonstrated a sensibility of 60.78% (46.11%–74.16%), specificity of 89.02% (80.18%–94.86%), positive LR of 5.54 (2.88–10.66) and negative LR of 0.44 (0.31–0.63). SRS demonstrated a 61.5% local control rate 12 months after treatment. Among the potential predictors of treatment outcome analyzed, only the right BM laterality had a significant association with SRS failure. The volumetric criteria were able to identify more subtle signs of BM increase than the unidimensional criteria, which may allow earlier diagnosis of disease progression and use of appropriate therapies.