Clinical characteristics and MRI based radiomics nomograms can predict iPFS and short-term efficacy of third-generation EGFR-TKI in EGFR-mutated lung adenocarcinoma with brain metastases

Predicting short-term efficacy and intracranial progression-free survival (iPFS) in epidermal growth factor receptor gene mutated (EGFR-mutated) lung adenocarcinoma patients with brain metastases who receive third-generation epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR-TKI) therapy was of great significance for individualized treatment. We aimed to construct and validate nomograms based on clinical characteristics and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics for predicting short-term efficacy and intracranial progression free survival (iPFS) of third-generation EGFR-TKI in EGFR-mutated lung adenocarcinoma patients with brain metastases.

One hundred ninety-four EGFR-mutated lung adenocarcinoma patients with brain metastases who received third-generation EGFR-TKI treatment were included in this study from January 1, 2017 to March 1, 2023. Patients were randomly divided into training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 5:3. Radiomics features extracted from brain MRI were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were used to screen clinical risk factors. Single clinical (C), single radiomics (R), and combined (C + R) nomograms were constructed in short-term efficacy predicting model and iPFS predicting model, respectively. Prediction effectiveness of nomograms were evaluated by calibration curves, Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare the iPFS of high and low iPFS rad-score patients in the predictive iPFS R model and to compare the iPFS of high-risk and low-risk patients in the predictive iPFS C + R model.

Overall response rate (ORR) was 71.1%, disease control rate (DCR) was 91.8% and median iPFS was 12.67 months (7.88–20.26, interquartile range [IQR]). There were significant differences in iPFS between patients with high and low iPFS rad-scores, as well as between high-risk and low-risk patients. In short-term efficacy model, the C-indexes of C + R nomograms in training cohort and validation cohort were 0.867 (0.835-0.900, 95%CI) and 0.803 (0.753–0.854, 95%CI), while in iPFS model, the C-indexes were 0.901 (0.874–0.929, 95%CI) and 0.753 (0.713–0.793, 95%CI).

The third-generation EGFR-TKI showed significant efficacy in EGFR-mutated lung adenocarcinoma patients with brain metastases, and the combined line plot of C + R can be utilized to predict short-term efficacy and iPFS.