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International Journal of Colorectal Disease

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01-12-2023 | Metastasis | RESEARCH

Prediction models for overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with metastatic early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based study

Authors: Chengxin Xu, Fengfeng Zhang, WanRong Cheng, Yanbo Zhu

Published in: International Journal of Colorectal Disease | Issue 1/2023

Abstract

Purpose

Metastatic early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) is on the rise, yet there is a dearth of predictive models for this disease. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a nomogram to aid in the early detection and management of metastatic colorectal cancer in young patients.

Methods

We retrieved data from the SEER database on patients with metastatic colorectal cancer aged 50 or younger between 2010 and 2017. The data were randomly allocated in a 7:3 ratio to training and validation cohorts, and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) at 1, 3, and 5 years. The nomograms were developed based on these factors, and their discriminatory and calibration capabilities were validated. Using the nomogram risk scores, patients were stratified into low-risk and high-risk groups.

Results

The study included 2470 patients with metastatic EO-CRC. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis identified 12 independent risk factors that were included in the nomogram. The training cohort had a consistency index (C-index) of 0.71, while the validation cohort had a C-index of 0.70, demonstrating good predictive accuracy. Calibration plots showed a high level of consistency between the observed and predicted values, with overlapping plots along the diagonal. The decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the nomogram had a high clinical application value.

Conclusions

The novel nomograms were created to predict the prognosis of patients with metastatic EO-CRC, which can aid clinicians in developing more effective treatment strategies and contribute to more accurate prognostic assessments.

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Title: Prediction models for overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with metastatic early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based study
Authors: Chengxin Xu
Fengfeng Zhang
WanRong Cheng
Yanbo Zhu
Publication date: 01-12-2023
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Keywords: Metastasis
Colorectal Cancer
Colorectal Cancer
Published in: International Journal of Colorectal Disease / Issue 1/2023
Print ISSN: 0179-1958
Electronic ISSN: 1432-1262
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00384-023-04369-x

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Prediction models for overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with metastatic early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based study

Abstract

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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