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Cancer Cell International

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Open Access 01-12-2021 | Metastasis | Primary research

Dynamic serum biomarkers to predict the efficacy of PD-1 in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Authors: Ao Zhang, Guanqing Zhong, Luocan Wang, Rongzeng Cai, Runkun Han, Caixia Xu, Shulin Chen, Peng Sun, Hao Chen

Published in: Cancer Cell International | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Background

There is a lack of effective treatments for recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (RM-NPC). Furthermore, the response rate of NPC patients to programmed death 1 (PD-1) inhibitors is approximately 20% to 30%. Thus, we aimed to explore reliable and minimally invasive prognostic indicators to predict the efficacy of PD-1 inhibitors combination therapy in RM-NPC.

Methods

The serum markers of 160 RM-NPC patients were measured before and three weeks after the first anti-PD-1 treatment. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression was carried out to select dynamic serum indicators and construct a prediction model. Furthermore, we carried out univariate, multivariate, nomogram and survival analyses to identify independent prognostic factors that were associated with 1-year progression-free survival (PFS).

Results

Based on two markers that were screened by Lasso logistic regression, we constructed a risk score prediction model for the prediction of anti-PD-1 efficacy at 8–12 weeks with an AUC of 0.737 in the training cohort and 0.723 in the validation cohort. Risk score and metastases were included in the nomogram, and the Kaplan–Meier survival curves demonstrated that the high-risk group has shorter PFS compared to the low-risk group. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram for PFS is higher than that of the TNM stage in the training and validation cohort.

Conclusion

We proposed a strategy to monitor dynamic changes in the biochemistry markers and emphasized their importance as potential prognostic biomarkers for the treatment of advanced NPC treated with PD-1 inhibitors. Our risk score prediction model was based on the dynamic change of LDH and AST/ALT, which has predictive and prognostic value for NPC patients who were treated with PD-1 inhibitors.

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Title: Dynamic serum biomarkers to predict the efficacy of PD-1 in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma
Authors: Ao Zhang
Guanqing Zhong
Luocan Wang
Rongzeng Cai
Runkun Han
Caixia Xu
Shulin Chen
Peng Sun
Hao Chen
Publication date: 01-12-2021
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Metastasis
Biomarkers
Published in: Cancer Cell International / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1475-2867
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12935-021-02217-y

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Abstract

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