Long-term renal outcome and complications in South Africans with proliferative lupus nephritis

To report the long-term outcome and complication profile of South African patients with proliferative lupus nephritis (PLN).

A retrospective review of 66 patients with biopsy-proven PLN [58 diffuse proliferative LN (Class IV) and 8 focal proliferative LN (Class III)] under our care from January 1995 to December 2009 was done.

Thirty-three (50 %) patients reached the composite end point of doubling of serum creatinine, end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death. The 5-, 10- and 15-year cumulative event-free survival rates were 54, 34 and 27 %, respectively. Variables associated with the composite end point were simultaneous diagnosis of SLE and LN (p = 0.048); elevated serum creatinine at onset (p = 0.009); elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) (p < 0.001) and elevated diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (p < 0.001) on follow-up; and non-remission following induction therapy (p < 0.001). The 5-, 10- and 15-year renal survival rates in our patients were 63, 52 and 52 %, respectively. Hypertension at onset of LN (p = 0.037), nephrotic-range proteinuria (p = 0.033), eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m² (p = 0.013) and lack of remission following induction therapy (p < 0.001) were all associated with development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Elevated SBP on follow-up (95 % CI 1.03–1.34, p = 0.017) was the only factor associated with composite end point while failure to achieve remission following induction therapy was the only factor associated with ESRD on multivariate analysis. Thirty-five (53 %) patients developed complications with persistent leukopenia, gastritis, sepsis, tuberculosis (TB) and herpes zoster being the leading complications. Ovarian failure occurred in 4 (11 %) patients.

The 5-, 10 and 15-year event-free survival rates were 54, 34 and 27 % and failure to achieve remission following induction therapy predicted poor renal survival on multivariate analysis.