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European Journal of Medical Research
Published in: European Journal of Medical Research 1/2017

Open Access 01-12-2017 | Research

Incidence of thyroid dysfunction in an Iranian adult population: the predictor role of thyroid autoantibodies: results from a prospective population-based cohort study

Authors: Ashraf Aminorroaya, Rokhsareh Meamar, Massoud Amini, Awat Feizi, Azamosadat Tabatabae, Elham Faghih Imani

Published in: European Journal of Medical Research | Issue 1/2017

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Abstract

Background

The prevalence of thyroid dysfunction is high in Isfahan, an area of iodine sufficient in Iran. The aim of this study is to investigate the incidence of thyroid dysfunctions in adults of metropolitan Isfahan and to determine the role of thyroid autoantibodies.

Methods

In a population-based cohort study in 2006–2011, we measured TSH, T4, T3, thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), and thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) in 618 out of 2254 people who were euthyroid in 2006. The incidence rates per 1000 person-year (pr) were calculated. The odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated based on logistic regression to quantify the potential predictors of thyroid dysfunction. The receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis along with area under the curve (AUC) was used to determine the optimal cutoff values for baseline TPOAb and TgAb as predictors of thyroid dysfunction.

Results

Within a 6-year follow-up, the incidence rate of hypothyroidism was 3.3 in women and 2.1 in men while the incidence rate of hyperthyroidism was 3.8 in women and none in men per 1000 (person-year). A cutoff value of TPOAb at 38 IU/mL was obtained to differentiate the patients with hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism, with specificity of 0.75 and sensitivity of 0.76, and AUC (CI 95%) of 0.882 (0.743–1.02), P = 0.01 and 0.817 (0.600–1.035) P = 0.033, respectively. There is a statistically significant association of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism with positive TPOAb [RR (CI 95%): 1.99 (1.27–3.13) and 2.20 (1.23–3.95), respectively].

Conclusions

The incidence rate of thyroid dysfunction is high in Isfahan, and higher TPOAb concentration is its strong predictor.
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Metadata
Title
Incidence of thyroid dysfunction in an Iranian adult population: the predictor role of thyroid autoantibodies: results from a prospective population-based cohort study
Authors
Ashraf Aminorroaya
Rokhsareh Meamar
Massoud Amini
Awat Feizi
Azamosadat Tabatabae
Elham Faghih Imani
Publication date
01-12-2017
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
European Journal of Medical Research / Issue 1/2017
Electronic ISSN: 2047-783X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-017-0260-2

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