The flow-metabolism ratio might predict treatment response and survival in patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Perfusion CT can offer functional information about tumor angiogenesis, and ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT quantifies the glucose metabolic activity of tumors. This prospective study aims to investigate the value of biologically relevant imaging biomarkers for predicting treatment response and survival outcomes in patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell cancer (LA ESCC).

Twenty-seven patients with pathologically proven ESCC were included. All patients had undergone perfusion CT and ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT using separate imaging systems before receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT). The perfusion parameters included blood flow (BF), blood volume (BV), and time to peak (TTP), and the metabolic parameters included maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG). The flow-metabolism ratio (FMR) was defined as BF divided by SUVmax. Statistical methods used included Spearman’s rank correlation, Mann–Whitney U test or two-sample t test, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the Kaplan–Meier method, and Cox proportional hazards models.

The median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were 18 and 11.6 months, respectively. FMR was significantly positively correlated with BF (r = 0.886, p < 0.001) and negatively correlated with SUVmax (r = − 0.547, p = 0.003) and TTP (r = − 0.462, p = 0.015) in the tumors. However, there was no significant correlation between perfusion and PET parameters. After dCRT, 14 patients (51.9%) were identified as responders, and another 13 were nonresponders. The BF and FMR of the responders were significantly higher than those of the nonresponders (42.05 ± 16.47 vs 27.48 ± 8.55, p = 0.007; 3.18 ± 1.15 vs 1.84 ± 0.65, p = 0.001). The ROC curves indicated that the FMR [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.846] was a better biomarker for predicting treatment response than BF (AUC = 0.802). Univariable Cox analysis revealed that of all imaging parameters, only the FMR was significantly correlated with overall survival (OS) (p = 0.015) and progression-free survival (PFS) (p = 0.017). Specifically, patients with a lower FMR had poorer survival. Multivariable analysis showed that after adjusting for age, clinical staging, and treatment response, the FMR remained an independent predictor of OS (p = 0.026) and PFS (p = 0.014).

The flow-metabolism mismatch demonstrated by a low FMR shows good potential in predicting chemoradiotherapy sensitivity and prognosis in ESCC.