Establishment of clinical diagnosis model of Graves’ disease and Hashimoto’s thyroiditis

A clinical diagnosis model include thyroid functions, thyroid antibodies and radioactive iodine uptake (RAIU) of patients with hyperthyroidism were established and as new evaluation indicators for the differentiation of the Graves’ disease (GD) and Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (HT).

Clinical data of patients with newly diagnosed hyperthyroidism including gender, age, thyroid function, thyroid antibodies (FT3, FT4, TSH, TPOAb, TGAb, TRAb), RAIU (2 h, 6 h, 24 h) were collected. A stepwise regression analysis was performed to establish a model based on these variables.

Model 1 was subjected to stepwise regression analysis. After screening, the variables that entered the model included FT3, TGAb, TPOAb, TRAb, 2-h RAIU, 24-h RAIU and gender, in which the variables FT3, TGAb, TRAb, 2-h RAIU, 24-h RAIU, and gender were significantly different. Model 2 without RAIU was also subjected to stepwise regression analysis. After screening, the variables that entered the model included FT4, TGAb, TPOAb, TRAb and gender were statistical significant. The larger value of each variable in the two models indicated the higher probability to diagnose GD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of model 1 was 0.843 (95% CI 0.779–0.894), and the area under the ROC curve of model 2 was 0.806 (95% CI 0.685–0.824), which showed good differential diagnostic value.

GD and HT diagnosis model was established according to the variables including gender, FT3, TGAb, TRAb, the 2-h RAIU, the 24-h RAIU in the model 1, and the variables FT4, TGAb, TPOAb, TRAb and gender in the model 2 that did not include RAIU. These models had high value to differentiate GD and HT for patients with early hyperthyroidism.