Skip to main content
Key Specialties
Cardiology Diabetology Endocrinology Gastroenterology Geriatrics and Gerontology Gynecology and Obstetrics Hematology Infectious Disease Internal Medicine Nephrology Neurology Oncology Pediatrics Respiratory Medicine Rheumatology Surgery
Congress Coverage
2024 ACC Congress 2023 ESMO Congress 2023 EASD Congress 2023 ERS Congress 2023 ESC Congress
Clinical Collections
Advances in Alzheimer’s

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

LIVE: Thursday 27th June 2024, 18:00-19:30 (CEST)
Join our expert panel to discover why you need to understand the drivers of non-adherence in your patients, and how you can optimize medication adherence in your clinics to drastically improve patient outcomes.
ADVANCED SEARCH
Log in
Top
Malaria Journal
Published in: Malaria Journal 1/2015

Open Access 01-12-2015 | Research

A validated agent-based model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria incidence in the rainforest environment

Authors: Francesco Pizzitutti, William Pan, Alisson Barbieri, J Jaime Miranda, Beth Feingold, Gilvan R. Guedes, Javiera Alarcon-Valenzuela, Carlos F. Mena

Published in: Malaria Journal | Issue 1/2015

Login to get access

Abstract

Background

The Amazon environment has been exposed in the last decades to radical changes that have been accompanied by a remarkable rise of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The malaria transmission process is highly influenced by factors such as spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the environment and individual-based characteristics of mosquitoes and humans populations. All these determinant factors can be simulated effectively trough agent-based models.

Methods

This paper presents a validated agent-based model of local-scale malaria transmission. The model reproduces the environment of a typical riverine village in the northern Peruvian Amazon, where the malaria transmission is highly seasonal and apparently associated with flooding of large areas caused by the neighbouring river. Agents representing humans, mosquitoes and the two species of Plasmodium (P. falciparum and P. vivax) are simulated in a spatially explicit representation of the environment around the village. The model environment includes: climate, people houses positions and elevation. A representation of changes in the mosquito breeding areas extension caused by the river flooding is also included in the simulation environment.

Results

A calibration process was carried out to reproduce the variations of the malaria monthly incidence over a period of 3 years. The calibrated model is also able to reproduce the spatial heterogeneities of local scale malaria transmission. A “what if” eradication strategy scenario is proposed: if the mosquito breeding sites are eliminated through mosquito larva habitat management in a buffer area extended at least 200 m around the village, the malaria transmission is eradicated from the village.

Conclusions

The use of agent-based models can reproduce effectively the spatiotemporal variations of the malaria transmission in a low endemicity environment dominated by river floodings like in the Amazon.
Footnotes
1
Image of the Nanay River high level in the area around Padre Cocha: date of the image: 24 of March 2013 from Google Earth, 3°41′56.48″S, 73°16′43.04″W
Image of the Nanay River low level in the area around Padre Cocha: date of the image: 12 of September 2013 from Google Earth, 3°41′56.48″S, 73°16′43.04″W.
 
Literature
1.
Malanson GP, Zeng Y, Walsh SJ. Landscape frontiers, geography frontiers: lessons to be learned. Prof Geogr. 2006;58:383–96.CrossRef
2.
Malanson GP, Zeng Y, Walsh SJ. Complexity at advancing ecotones and frontiers. Environ Plan A. 2006;38:619–32.CrossRef
3.
Pan W, Carr D, Barbieri A, Bilsborrow R, Suchindran C. Forest clearing in the Ecuadorian Amazon: a study of patterns over space and time. Popul Res Policy Rev. 2007;26:635–59.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
4.
Perz SG, Aramburú C, Bremner J. Population, land use and deforestation in the Pan Amazon Basin: a comparison of Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Perú and Venezuela. Environ Dev Sustain. 2005;7:23–49.CrossRef
5.
Coomes OT, Grimard F, Burt GJ. Tropical forests and shifting cultivation: secondary forest fallow dynamics among traditional farmers of the Peruvian Amazon. Ecol Econ. 2000;32:109–24.CrossRef
6.
Arce-Nazario JA. Human landscapes have complex trajectories: reconstructing Peruvian Amazon landscape history from 1948 to 2005. Landsc Ecol. 2007;22:89–101.CrossRef
7.
Vittor A, Pan W, Gilman RH, Tielsch J, Glass G, Shields T, et al. Linking deforestation to malaria in the Amazon: characterization of the breeding habitat of the principal malaria vector, Anopheles darlingi. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2009;81:5–12.PubMedPubMedCentral
8.
9.
10.
World Health Organization. World malaria report, 2013. Geneva. 2013.
11.
Barbieri AF, Sawyer DO, Soares-Filho BS. Population and land use effects on malaria prevalence in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Hum Ecol. 2005;33:847–74.CrossRef
12.
13.
Smith DL, Battle KE, Hay SI, Barker CM, Scott TW, McKenzie FE. Ross, macdonald, and a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens. PLoS Pathog. 2012;8:e1002588.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
14.
15.
16.
Brown DG, Riolo R, Robinson DT, North M, Rand W. Spatial process and data models: toward integration of agent-based models and GIS. J Geogr Syst. 2005;7:25–47.CrossRef
17.
Gu W, Novak RJ. Agent-based modelling of mosquito foraging behaviour for malaria control. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2009;103:1–14.CrossRef
18.
Bomblies A, Duchemin J-B, Eltahir EAB. Hydrology of malaria: model development and application to a Sahelian village. Water Resour Res. 2008;44:W12445.CrossRef
19.
Bomblies A. Agent-based modeling of malaria vectors: the importance of spatial simulation. Parasit Vectors. 2014;7:1–10.CrossRef
20.
Linard C, Ponçon N, Fontenille D, Lambin EF. A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France. Ecol Modell. 2009;220:160–74.CrossRef
21.
Niaz Arifin SM, Madey GR, Collins FH. Examining the impact of larval source management and insecticide-treated nets using a spatial agent-based model of Anopheles gambiae and a landscape generator tool. Malar J. 2013;12:290.CrossRef
22.
Yamana TK, Bomblies A, Laminou IM, Duchemin J-B, Eltahir EAB. Linking environmental variability to village-scale malaria transmission using a simple immunity model. Parasit Vectors. 2013;6:226.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
23.
Depinay J-MO, Mbogo CM, Killeen G, Knols B, Beier J, Carlson J, et al. A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission. Malar J. 2004;3:29.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
24.
Crooks A, Castle C, Batty M. Key challenges in agent-based modelling for geo-spatial simulation. Comput Environ Urban Syst. 2008;32:417–30.CrossRef
25.
Ligtenberg A, van Lammeren RJA, Bregt AK, Beulens AJM. Validation of an agent-based model for spatial planning: a role-playing approach. Comput Environ Urban Syst. 2010;34:424–34.CrossRef
26.
Pizzitutti F, Mena C, Walsh S. Modelling tourism in the Galapagos islands: an agent-based model approach. J Artif Soc Soc Simul. 2014; 17.
27.
Bautista CT, Chan AST, Ryan JR, Calampa C, Roper MH, Hightower AW, et al. Epidemiology and spatial analysis of malaria in the Northern Peruvian Amazon. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2006;75:1216–22.PubMed
28.
Kulldorff M. A spatial scan statistic. Commun Stat Theory Methods. 1997;26:1481–96.CrossRef
29.
30.
Luke S, Cioffi-Revilla C, Panait L, Sullivan K, Balan G. MASON: a multiagent simulation environment. Simulation. 2005;81:517–27.CrossRef
31.
Roper MH, Carrion Torres RS, Cava Goicochea CG, Andersen EM, Aramburú Guarda JS, Calampa C, et al. The epidemiology of malaria in an epidemic area of the Peruvian Amazon. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2000;62:247–56.PubMed
32.
Deane L, Causey O, Deane M. Notas sobre a distribuição e a biologia dos anofelinos das regiões nordestina e amazônica do Brasil. Rev Fund SESP. 1948;1:827–35.
33.
de Barros F, Honório N. Man biting rate seasonal variation of malaria vectors in Roraima, Brazil. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2007;102:299–302.PubMedCrossRef
34.
Charlwood J, Alecrim W. Capture-recapture studies with the South American malaria vector Anopheles darlingi, Root. Ann Trop Med Parasitol. 1989;83:569–76.PubMed
35.
Achee N, Grieco J, Andre R, Rejmankova E, Roberts D. A mark-release-recapture study using a novel portable hut design to define the flight behavior of Anopheles darlingi in Belize, Central America. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 2005;21:366–79.PubMedCrossRef
36.
37.
Villarreal-treviño C, Vásquez GM, López-sifuentes VM, Escobedo-vargas K, Huayanay-repetto A, Linton Y, et al. Establishment of a free-mating, long-standing and highly productive laboratory colony of Anopheles darlingi from the Peruvian Amazon. Malar J. 2015;14:227.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
38.
Turell MJ, Sardelis MR, Jones JW, Watts DM, Fernandez R, Carbajal F, et al. Seasonal distribution, biology, and human attraction patterns of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in a rural village and adjacent forested site near Iquitos, Peru. J Med Entomol. 2008;45:1165–72.PubMedCrossRef
39.
León WC, Valle JT, Naupay RO, Tineo E V, Rosas AA, Palomino MS: Comportamiento estacional del Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) darlingi Root 1926 en localidades de Loreto Y Madre de Dios, Peru 1999–2000. 2003; 20:22–27.
40.
Reinbold-Wasson DD, Sardelis MR, Jones JW, Watts DM, Fernandez R, Carbajal F, et al. Determinants of Anopheles seasonal distribution patterns across a forest to periurban gradient near Iquitos, Peru. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2012;86:459–63.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
41.
Vittor AY, Gilman RH, Tielsch J, Glass G, Shields T, Lozano WS, et al. The effect of deforestation on the human-biting rate of Anopheles darlingi, the primary vector of Falciparum malaria in the Peruvian Amazon. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2006;74:3–11.PubMed
42.
43.
Lounibos LP, Lima DC, Lourenço-de-Oliveira R. Prompt mating of released Anopheles darlingi in western Amazonian Brazil. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1998;14:210–3.PubMed
44.
Gibson G, Torr SJ. Visual and olfactory responses of haematophagous Diptera to host stimuli. Med Vet Entomol. 1999;13:2–23.PubMedCrossRef
45.
Alonso WJ, Schuck-Paim C. The “ghosts” that pester studies on learning in mosquitoes: guidelines to chase them off. Med Vet Entomol. 2006;20:157–65.PubMedCrossRef
46.
47.
Service M. Effects of wind on the behaviour and distribution of mosquitoes and blackflies. Int J Biometeorol. 1980;24:347–53.CrossRef
48.
Achee NL, Grieco JP, Rejmankova E, Andre RG, Vanzie E, Polanco J, et al. Biting patterns and seasonal densities of Anopheles mosquitoes in the Cayo District, Belize, Central America with emphasis on Anopheles darlingi Biting patterns and seasonal densities of Anopheles mosquitoes in the Cayo District, Belize, Central Ameri. J Vector Ecol. 2006;31:45–57.PubMedCrossRef
49.
Rozendaal J. Biting and resting behavior of Anopheles darlingi in the Suriname rainforest. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1989;5:351–8.PubMed
50.
Dantas C, Tadei WP, Abdalla FC, Filemon P, De Oliveira CD, Pimenta P, et al. Multiple blood meals in Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae). J Vector Ecol. 2012;37:351–8.CrossRef
51.
de Barros FSM, Honório NA, Arruda ME. Survivorship of Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) in relation with malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. PLoS One. 2011;6:e22388.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
52.
Bergo ES, Buralli GM, Santos JLF, Gurgel SM. Avaliação Do Desenvolvimento Larval De Anopheles Darlingi Criado Em Laboratório Sob Diferentes Dietas. Rev Saude Publica. 1990;24:95–100.PubMedCrossRef
53.
Craig MH, Snow RW, le Sueur D. A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Parasitol Today. 1999;15:105–11.PubMedCrossRef
54.
Ekpenyong E, Eyo J. Plasmodium infection in man: a review. Anim Res Int. 2006;3:573–80.
55.
Detinova TS. Age grouping methods in Diptera of medical importance. Geneva. 1962.
56.
Price R, Tjitra E, Guerra C, Yeung S, White NJ, Anstey NN. Vivax malaria: neglected and not benign. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2007;77:79–87.PubMedPubMedCentral
57.
Warrell DA, Gilles HM. Essential malariology. CRC Press. 2002.
58.
Hayward RE, Tiwari B, Piper KP, Baruch DI, Day KP. Virulence and transmission success of the malarial parasite Plasmodium falciparum. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 1999;96:4563–8.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
59.
Bousema T, Drakeley C. Epidemiology and infectivity of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax gametocytes in relation to malaria control and elimination. Clin Microbiol Rev. 2011;24:377–410.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
60.
61.
Douglas NM, Simpson JA, Phyo AP, Siswantoro H, Hasugian AR, Kenangalem E, et al. Gametocyte dynamics and the role of drugs in reducing the transmission potential of plasmodium vivax. J Infect Dis. 2013;208:801–12.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
62.
Bousema T, Okell L, Shekalaghe S, Griffin JT, Omar S, Sawa P, et al. Revisiting the circulation time of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes: molecular detection methods to estimate the duration of gametocyte carriage and the effect of gametocytocidal drugs. Malar J. 2010;9:136.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
63.
Van den Eede P, Soto-Calle VE, Delgado C, Gamboa D, Grande T, Rodriguez H, et al. Plasmodium vivax sub-patent infections after radical treatment are common in Peruvian patients: results of a 1-year prospective cohort study. PLoS One. 2011;6:e16257.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
64.
Bharti A, Chuquiyauri R, Brouwer K. Experimental infection of the neotropical malaria vector Anopheles darlingi by human patient-derived Plasmodium vivax in the Peruvian Amazon. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2006;75:610–6.PubMedPubMedCentral
65.
Alves F, Gil L, Marrelli M. Asymptomatic carriers of Plasmodium spp. as infection source for malaria vector mosquitoes in the Brazilian Amazon. J Med Entomol. 2005;42:777–9.PubMedCrossRef
66.
Heggenhougen HK, Hackethal V, Vivek P. The behavioural and social aspects of malaria and its control. Geneva. 2003.
67.
Kroeger A, Mancheno M, Alarcon J, Pesse K. Insecticide-impregnated bed nets for malaria control : concerning acceptability and effectiveness. Am Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1995; 53.
68.
Santos JB. Baixa aderência e alto custo como fatores de insucesso do uso de mosquiteiros impregnados com inseticida no controle da malária na Amazônia Brasileira Low adherence and high cost as failure factors of impregnated bed nets with insecticide for malaria cont. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 1999;32:333–41.PubMed
69.
Coleman R, Sattabongkot J, Promstaporm S, Maneechai N, Tippayachai B, Kengluecha A, et al. Comparison of PCR and microscopy for the detection of asymptomatic malaria in a Plasmodium falciparum/vivax endemic area in Thailand. Malar J. 2006;5:121.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
70.
Roshanravan B, Kari E, Gilman R, Cabrera L, Lee E, Metcalfe J, et al. Endemic malaria in the Peruvian Amazon region of Iquitos. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2003;69:45–52.PubMed
71.
Alves F, Durlacher R, Menezes M. High prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections in native Amazonian populations. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2002;66:641–8.PubMed
72.
Niaz Arifin SM, Arifin R, Pitts D, Rahman M, Nowreen S, Madey G, et al. Landscape epidemiology modeling using an agent-based model and a geographic information system. Land. 2015;4:378–412.CrossRef
73.
Burkot T, Graves P, Cattan J. The efficiency of sporozoite transmission in the human malarias, Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax. Bull World Health Organ. 1987;65:375–80.PubMedPubMedCentral
74.
Cohen JM, Smith DL, Cotter C, Ward A, Yamey G, Sabot OJ, et al. Malaria resurgence: a systematic review and assessment of its causes. Malar J. 2012;11:122.PubMedPubMedCentralCrossRef
75.
WHO Malaria Policy Advisory Committee and Secretariat. Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the WHO: conclusions and recommendations of March 2013 meeting. Malar J. 2013;12:213.CrossRef
Metadata
Title
A validated agent-based model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria incidence in the rainforest environment
Authors
Francesco Pizzitutti
William Pan
Alisson Barbieri
J Jaime Miranda
Beth Feingold
Gilvan R. Guedes
Javiera Alarcon-Valenzuela
Carlos F. Mena
Publication date
01-12-2015
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Malaria Journal / Issue 1/2015
Electronic ISSN: 1475-2875
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-015-1030-7

Other articles of this Issue 1/2015

Malaria Journal 1/2015 Go to the issue

Research

Controlled human malaria infection by intramuscular and direct venous inoculation of cryopreserved Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites in malaria-naïve volunteers: effect of injection volume and dose on infectivity rates

Research

On-going malaria transmission in The Gambia despite high coverage of control interventions: a nationwide cross-sectional survey

Methodology

Fast track antibody V-gene rescue, recombinant expression in plants and characterization of a PfMSP4-specific antibody

Research

Evaluation of ICON Maxx, a long-lasting treatment kit for mosquito nets: experimental hut trials against anopheline mosquitoes in Tanzania

Research

Re-imagining malaria: heterogeneity of human and mosquito behaviour in relation to residual malaria transmission in Cambodia

Research

Mosquito host preferences affect their response to synthetic and natural odour blends
Live Webinar | 27-06-2024 | 18:00 (CEST)

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Reserve your place

Live: Thursday 27th June 2024, 18:00-19:30 (CEST)

WHO estimates that half of all patients worldwide are non-adherent to their prescribed medication. The consequences of poor adherence can be catastrophic, on both the individual and population level.

Join our expert panel to discover why you need to understand the drivers of non-adherence in your patients, and how you can optimize medication adherence in your clinics to drastically improve patient outcomes.

Prof. Kevin Dolgin
Prof. Florian Limbourg
Prof. Anoop Chauhan
Developed by: Springer Medicine
Obesity Clinical Trial Summary

At a glance: The STEP trials

Read more

A round-up of the STEP phase 3 clinical trials evaluating semaglutide for weight loss in people with overweight or obesity.

Developed by: Springer Medicine

Highlights from the ACC 2024 Congress

Year in Review: Pediatric cardiology

Pediatric Cardiology Video

Watch Dr. Anne Marie Valente present the last year's highlights in pediatric and congenital heart disease in the official ACC.24 Year in Review session.

Year in Review: Pulmonary vascular disease

Cardiopulmonary Comorbidity Video

The last year's highlights in pulmonary vascular disease are presented by Dr. Jane Leopold in this official video from ACC.24.

Year in Review: Valvular heart disease

Valvular Heart Disease Video

Watch Prof. William Zoghbi present the last year's highlights in valvular heart disease from the official ACC.24 Year in Review session.

Year in Review: Heart failure and cardiomyopathies

Heart Failure Video

Watch this official video from ACC.24. Dr. Biykem Bozkurt discusses last year's major advances in heart failure and cardiomyopathies.

ACC 2024 Congress Coverage

Year in Review: Heart failure and cardiomyopathies

Heart Failure Video

Watch this official video from ACC.24. Dr. Biykem Bozkurt discusses last year's major advances in heart failure and cardiomyopathies.

Watch now

Semaglutide benefits people with type 2 diabetes and obesity-related heart failure

16-04-2024 Type 2 Diabetes News

Incentivised to exercise

11-04-2024 Lifestyle Modifications News

New intervention for STEMI-related cardiogenic shock

10-04-2024 Myocardial Infarction News

» View more highlights on the ACC 2024 congress hub page

Image Credits