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Open Access 01-12-2022 | Vaccination | Research article

Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants

Authors: Yan Wang, Kaiyuan Sun, Zhaomin Feng, Lan Yi, Yanpeng Wu, Hengcong Liu, Quanyi Wang, Marco Ajelli, Cécile Viboud, Hongjie Yu

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2022

Abstract

Background

The SARS-CoV-2 containment strategy has been successful in mainland China prior to the emergence of Omicron. However, in the era of highly transmissible variants, whether it is possible for China to sustain a local containment policy and under what conditions China could transition away from it are of paramount importance at the current stage of the pandemic.

Methods

We developed a spatially structured, fully stochastic, individual-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to evaluate the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in mainland China considering the Omicron variants, China’s current immunization level, and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We also built a statistical model to estimate the overall disease burden under various hypothetical mitigation scenarios.

Results

We found that due to high transmissibility, neither Omicron BA.1 nor BA.2 could be contained by China’s pre-Omicron NPI strategies which were successful prior to the emergence of the Omicron variants. However, increased intervention intensity, such as enhanced population mobility restrictions and multi-round mass testing, could lead to containment success. We estimated that an acute Omicron epidemic wave in mainland China would result in significant number of deaths if China were to reopen under current vaccine coverage with no antiviral uptake, while increasing vaccination coverage and antiviral uptake could substantially reduce the disease burden.

Conclusions

As China’s current vaccination has yet to reach high coverage in older populations, NPIs remain essential tools to maintain low levels of infection while building up protective population immunity, ensuring a smooth transition out of the pandemic phase while minimizing the overall disease burden.

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Title: Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants
Authors: Yan Wang
Kaiyuan Sun
Zhaomin Feng
Lan Yi
Yanpeng Wu
Hengcong Liu
Quanyi Wang
Marco Ajelli
Cécile Viboud
Hongjie Yu
Publication date: 01-12-2022
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Vaccination
SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
Published in: BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2022
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02640-6

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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