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BMC Medicine
Published in: BMC Medicine 1/2017

Open Access 01-12-2017 | Research article

Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030?

Authors: Yichong Li, Xinying Zeng, Jiangmei Liu, Yunning Liu, Shiwei Liu, Peng Yin, Jinlei Qi, Zhenping Zhao, Shicheng Yu, Yuehua Hu, Guangxue He, Alan D. Lopez, George F. Gao, Linhong Wang, Maigeng Zhou

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2017

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Abstract

Background

The United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one third. To assess the feasibility of this goal in China, we projected premature mortality in 2030 of NCDs under different risk factor reduction scenarios.

Methods

We used China results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 as empirical data for projections. Deaths between 1990 and 2013 for cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and other NCDs were extracted, along with population numbers. We disaggregated deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to high systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, high body mass index (BMI), high total cholesterol, physical inactivity, and high fasting glucose. Risk factor exposure and deaths by NCD category were projected to 2030. Eight simulated scenarios were also constructed to explore how premature mortality will be affected if the World Health Organization’s targets for risk factors reduction are achieved by 2030.

Results

If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from NCDs would increase from 3.11 million to 3.52 million, but the premature mortality rate would decrease by 13.1%. In the combined scenario in which all risk factor reduction targets are achieved, nearly one million deaths among persons 30 to 70 years old due to NCDs would be avoided, and the one-third reduction goal would be achieved for all NCDs combined. More specifically, the goal would be achieved for CVD and chronic respiratory diseases, but not for cancer and diabetes. Reduction in the prevalence of high SBP, smoking, and high BMI played an important role in achieving the goals.

Conclusions

Reaching the goal of a one-third reduction in premature mortality from NCDs is possible by 2030 if certain targets for risk factor intervention are reached, but more efforts are required to achieve risk factor reduction.
Appendix
Available only for authorised users
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Metadata
Title
Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030?
Authors
Yichong Li
Xinying Zeng
Jiangmei Liu
Yunning Liu
Shiwei Liu
Peng Yin
Jinlei Qi
Zhenping Zhao
Shicheng Yu
Yuehua Hu
Guangxue He
Alan D. Lopez
George F. Gao
Linhong Wang
Maigeng Zhou
Publication date
01-12-2017
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2017
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-017-0894-5

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