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BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
Published in: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 1/2020

01-12-2020 | Human Immunodeficiency Virus | Research article

A comparative study on the prediction of the BP artificial neural network model and the ARIMA model in the incidence of AIDS

Authors: Zeming Li, Yanning Li

Published in: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making | Issue 1/2020

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Abstract

Background

As a kind of widely distributed disease in China, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) has been quickly growing each year, become a serious problem and caused serious damage to the life and health of people and the social events of China and the world because of its high fatality rate. It has been much concerned by all aspects of society. Therefore, developing early warning technology and finding the trend of early development are of quite significance to prevent and control human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS. This study aimed to explore a suitable model for the morbidity of AIDS in China and establish a professional and feasible disease prediction model for the prevention and control works of AIDS.

Methods

At present, the traditional linear model is still utilized by most scholars to predict the incidence of HIV/AIDS. In addition, some scholars may attempt to use the nonlinear prediction model. Both prediction models showed good fitting and prediction effects. In China, the incidence of AIDS presents linear and nonlinear characteristics. In this research, the nonlinear back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model and the typical auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) linear model were applied to predict the incidence of HIV/AIDS and compare their fitting effects.

Results

Both models were capable of predicting the expected cases of AIDS. It was seen that ARIMA and BP-ANN models could be used to forecast the monthly incidence of HIV/AIDS, but the fitting and forecasting effects of the nonlinear BP neural network model were better than those of the traditional linear ARIMA model.

Conclusions

In summary, it was further concluded that the BP-ANN model was a suitable way to monitor and predict the change trend and morbidity of AIDS in China.
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Metadata
Title
A comparative study on the prediction of the BP artificial neural network model and the ARIMA model in the incidence of AIDS
Authors
Zeming Li
Yanning Li
Publication date
01-12-2020
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making / Issue 1/2020
Electronic ISSN: 1472-6947
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-020-01157-3

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