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Published in: BMC Pulmonary Medicine 1/2018

Open Access 01-12-2018 | Research article

A model for predicting bacteremia in patients with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia: a retrospective observational study

Authors: Yasuyoshi Washio, Akihiro Ito, Shogo Kumagai, Tadashi Ishida, Akio Yamazaki

Published in: BMC Pulmonary Medicine | Issue 1/2018

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Abstract

Background

Pneumococcal pneumonia causes high morbidity and mortality among adults. This study aimed to identify risk factors for bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia, and to construct a prediction model for the development of bacteremia in patients with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed data from patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia between April 2007 and August 2015. Logistic regression models were applied to detect risk factors for pneumococcal bacteremia, and a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to devise a prediction model.

Results

Based on the results of sputum cultures, urine antigen tests, and/or blood cultures, 389 patients were diagnosed with pneumococcal pneumonia, 46 of whom had bacteremia. In the multivariate analysis, age < 65 years, serum albumin level < 3.0 g/dL, need for intensive respiratory or vasopressor support (IRVS), and C-reactive protein level > 20 mg/dL were identified as independent risk factors for the development of pneumococcal bacteremia. The bacteremia prediction score based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis had a sensitivity of 0.74 and a specificity of 0.78 in patients with two risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.70–0.85).

Conclusions

Age < 65 years, hypoalbuminemia, IRVS, and high C-reactive protein level on admission are independent risk factors for the development of bacteremia in patients with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia. A prediction model based on these four risk factors could help to identify patients with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia at high risk of developing bacteremia; this can be used to guide antibiotic choices.

Trial registration

UMIN-CTR UMIN 000004353. Registered 7 October 2010. Retrospectively registered.
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Metadata
Title
A model for predicting bacteremia in patients with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia: a retrospective observational study
Authors
Yasuyoshi Washio
Akihiro Ito
Shogo Kumagai
Tadashi Ishida
Akio Yamazaki
Publication date
01-12-2018
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Pulmonary Medicine / Issue 1/2018
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2466
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12890-018-0572-1

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