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BMC Public Health
Published in: BMC Public Health 1/2019

Open Access 01-12-2019 | Research article

An exploratory model for the non-fatal drowning risks in children in Guangdong, China

Authors: Haofeng Xu, Xuhao Zhu, Zhishan Zhou, Yanjun Xu, Yongjian Zhu, Lifeng Lin, Jinying Huang, Ruilin Meng

Published in: BMC Public Health | Issue 1/2019

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Abstract

Background

Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death in children under 14 years of age in Guangdong, China. We developed a statistical model to classify the risk of drowning among children based on the risk factors.

Methods

A multiple-stage cluster random sampling was employed to select the students in Grades 3 to 9 in two townships in Qingyuan, Guangdong. Questionnaire was a self-reported measure consisting of general information, knowledge, attitudes and activities. A univariate logistic regression model was used to preliminarily select the independent variables at a P value of 0.1 for multivariable model. Three-quarters of the participants were randomly selected as a training sample to establish the model, and the remaining were treated as a testing sample to validate the model.

Results

A total of 8390 children were included in this study, about 12.18% (1013) experienced drowning during the past one year. In the univariate logistic regression model, introvert personality, unclear distributions of water areas on the way to school, and bad relationships with their classmates and families were positively associated with drowning. However, females, older age and lower swimming skills were negatively associated with drowning. After employing the prediction model with these factors to estimate drowning risk of the students in the testing samples, the results of Hosmer-Lemeshow tests showed non-significant differences between the predictive results and actual risk (χ2 = 5.97, P = 0.65).

Conclusions

Male, younger children, higher swimming skills, bad relationship with their classmates and families, introvert personality and unclear distributions of water areas on the way to school were important risk factors of non-fatal drowning among children. The prediction model based on these variables has an acceptable predictive ability.
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Metadata
Title
An exploratory model for the non-fatal drowning risks in children in Guangdong, China
Authors
Haofeng Xu
Xuhao Zhu
Zhishan Zhou
Yanjun Xu
Yongjian Zhu
Lifeng Lin
Jinying Huang
Ruilin Meng
Publication date
01-12-2019
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Public Health / Issue 1/2019
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2458
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-6944-5

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