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BMC Infectious Diseases

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Open Access 01-12-2020 | Amnesia | Research article

The potential impact of a recent measles epidemic on COVID-19 in Samoa

Authors: Chandini Raina MacIntyre, Valentina Costantino, David J. Heslop

Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases | Issue 1/2020

Abstract

Background

The pandemic of COVID-19 has occurred close on the heels of a global resurgence of measles. In 2019, an unprecedented epidemic of measles affected Samoa, requiring a state of emergency to be declared. Measles causes an immune amnesia which can persist for over 2 years after acute infection and increases the risk of a range of other infections.

Methods

We modelled the potential impact of measles-induced immune amnesia on a COVID-19 epidemic in Samoa using data on measles incidence in 2018–2019, population data and a hypothetical COVID-19 epidemic.

Results

The young population structure and contact matrix in Samoa results in the most transmission occurring in young people < 20 years old. The highest rate of death is the 60+ years old, but a smaller peak in death may occur in younger people, with more than 15% of total deaths in the age group under 20 years old. Measles induced immune amnesia could increase the total number of cases by 8% and deaths by more than 2%.

Conclusions

Samoa, which had large measles epidemics in 2019–2020 should focus on rapidly achieving high rates of measles vaccination and enhanced surveillance for COVID-19, as the impact may be more severe due to measles-induced immune paresis. This applies to other severely measles-affected countries in the Pacific, Europe and elsewhere.

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Title: The potential impact of a recent measles epidemic on COVID-19 in Samoa
Authors: Chandini Raina MacIntyre
Valentina Costantino
David J. Heslop
Publication date: 01-12-2020
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Amnesia
COVID-19
Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases / Issue 1/2020
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2334
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-020-05469-7

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