Role of meteorological conditions in reported chickenpox cases in Wuhan and Hong Kong, China

Chickenpox is a common contagious disease that remains an important public health issue worldwide. Over 90% of unvaccinated individuals become infected, but infection occurs at different ages in different parts of the world. Many people have been infected by 20 to 30 years of age in China, and adults and pregnant women who become infected often develop severe infection. Furthermore, a mortality rate of 2–3 per 100,000 infected persons has been reported. In this study, we explore the temperature-dependent transition of patterns of reported chickenpox cases in two large subtropical climate cities, Wuhan and Hong Kong, China, to aid in the prediction of epidemics and preparation for the effects of climatic changes on epidemiology of chickenpox in China.

We used a time series analysis comprising a spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. Specifically, the following time series data were analyzed: data of reported chickenpox cases and meteorological data, including the mean temperature, relative humidity and total rainfall in Wuhan and Hong Kong from January 2008 to June 2015.

The time series data of chickenpox for both Wuhan and Hong Kong have two peaks per year, one in winter and another in spring, indicating a bimodal cycle. To investigate the source of the bimodal cycle of the chickenpox data, we defined the contribution ratio of the 1-year cycle, Q ₁, and the 6-month cycle, Q ₂, as the contribution of the amplitude of a 1-year cycle and a 6-month cycle, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time-series data. The Q ₁ values of Wuhan and Hong Kong were positively correlated with the annual mean temperature and rainfall of each city. Conversely, the Q ₂ values of Wuhan and Hong Kong were negatively correlated with the annual mean temperature and rainfall of Wuhan and Hong Kong.

Our results showed that the mean temperature and rainfall have a significant influence on the incidence of chickenpox, and might be important predictors of chickenpox incidence in Wuhan and Hong Kong.