Identification of risk factors for pancreatic pseudocysts formation, intervention and recurrence: a 15-year retrospective analysis in a tertiary hospital in China

Pancreatic pseudocyst (PPC) is a common complication of acute and chronic pancreatitis. To our knowledge no study has systematically reported the risk factors for the formation, intervention and recurrence of PPC. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the potential risk factors for PPC, with regards to its formation, intervention and recurrence.

A database containing 5106 pancreatitis patients was retrospectively analyzed. As a result, a total of 4379 eligible patients were identified and divided into 2 groups: PPC group (group A, n = 759) and non-PPC group (group B, n = 3620). The PPC group was subdivided into 2 groups: intervention PPC (group C, n = 347) and resolution PPC (group D, n = 412). The differences in surgical complication and recurrence rates were compared among 347 PPC patients receiving different interventions, including surgical, endoscopic and percutaneous drainages. Furthermore, group C was subdivided into 2 groups: recurrent PPC (group E, n = 34) and non-recurrent PPC (group F, n = 313). All possible risk factors for PPC formation, intervention and recurrence were determined by multivariate regression analysis.

In this study, PPC was developed in 17.3% (759/4379) of pancreatitis patients. The significant risk factors for PPC formation included alcoholic pancreatitis (OR, 6.332; 95% CI, 2.164–11.628; p = 0.031), chronic pancreatitis (CP) (OR, 5.822; 95% CI, 1.921–10.723; p = 0.006) and infected pancreatic necrosis (OR, 4.253; 95% CI, 3.574–7.339; p = 0.021). Meanwhile, the significant risk factors of PPC patients who received intervention were alcoholic pancreatitis (OR, 7.634; 95% CI, 2.125–13.558; p = 0.016), size over 6 cm (OR, 8.834; 95% CI, 2.017–16.649; p = 0.002) and CP (OR, 4.782; 95% CI, 1.897–10.173; p = 0.038). In addition, the recurrence rate in PPC patients treated with percutaneous drainage was found to be the highest (16.3%) among the three intervention groups. Furthermore, percutaneous drainage was the only risk factor of PPC recurrence (OR, 7.812; 95% CI, 3.109–23.072; p = 0.013) identified from this retrospective cohort study.

Alcoholic pancreatitis and CP are the main risk factors for PPC formation and intervention, but not PPC recurrence. A higher recurrence rate is found in PPC patients treated with percutaneous drainage, as compared to endoscopic and surgical interventions.