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Malaria Journal
Published in: Malaria Journal 1/2012

Open Access 01-12-2012 | Research

Modeling the role of environmental variables on the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto

Authors: Paul E Parham, Diane Pople, Céline Christiansen-Jucht, Steve Lindsay, Wes Hinsley, Edwin Michael

Published in: Malaria Journal | Issue 1/2012

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Abstract

Background

The impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables.

Methods

Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables.

Results

A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations.

Conclusions

Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Modeling the role of environmental variables on the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto
Authors
Paul E Parham
Diane Pople
Céline Christiansen-Jucht
Steve Lindsay
Wes Hinsley
Edwin Michael
Publication date
01-12-2012
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Malaria Journal / Issue 1/2012
Electronic ISSN: 1475-2875
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-11-271

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