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01-08-2018 | Brief Report

A prognostic scoring model for survival after locoregional therapy in de novo stage IV breast cancer

Authors: Anuhya Kommalapati, Sri Harsha Tella, Gaurav Goyal, Apar Kishor Ganti, Jairam Krishnamurthy, Pavan Kumar Tandra

Published in: Breast Cancer Research and Treatment | Issue 3/2018

Abstract

Background

The role of locoregional treatment (LRT) remains controversial in de novo stage IV breast cancer (BC). We sought to analyze the role of LRT and prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in de novo stage IV BC patients treated with LRT utilizing the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB). The objective of the current study is to create and internally validate a prognostic scoring model to predict the long-term OS for de novo stage IV BC patients treated with LRT.

Methods

We included de novo stage IV BC patients reported to NCDB between 2004 and 2015. Patients were divided into LRT and no-LRT subsets. We randomized LRT subset to training and validation cohorts. In the training cohort, a seventeen-point prognostic scoring system was developed based on the hazard ratios calculated using Cox-proportional method. We stratified both training and validation cohorts into two “groups” [group 1 (0–7 points) and group 2 (7–17 points)]. Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test were used to compare OS between the two groups. Our prognostic score was validated internally by comparing the OS between the respective groups in both the training and validation cohorts.

Results

Among 67,978 patients, LRT subset (21,200) had better median OS as compared to that of no-LRT (45 vs. 24 months; p < 0.0001). The group 1 and group 2 in the training cohort showed a significant difference in the 3-year OS (p < 0.0001) (68 vs. 26%). On internal validation, comparable OS was seen between the respective groups in each cohort (p = 0.77).

Conclusions

Our prognostic scoring system will help oncologists to predict the prognosis in de novo stage IV BC patients treated with LRT. Although firm treatment-related conclusions cannot be made due to the retrospective nature of the study, LRT appears to be associated with a better OS in specific subgroups.

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Title: A prognostic scoring model for survival after locoregional therapy in de novo stage IV breast cancer
Authors: Anuhya Kommalapati
Sri Harsha Tella
Gaurav Goyal
Apar Kishor Ganti
Jairam Krishnamurthy
Pavan Kumar Tandra
Publication date: 01-08-2018
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: Breast Cancer Research and Treatment / Issue 3/2018
Print ISSN: 0167-6806
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7217
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-018-4802-2

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