Transitions between socio-emotional and cognitive vulnerability profiles from early to middle childhood: a population study using multi-agency administrative records

Adult psychosocial difficulties, including psychiatric disorders, are often preceded by childhood psychosocial vulnerabilities, presenting critical windows of opportunity for preventative intervention. The present study aimed to identify longitudinal patterns (representing transitions between profiles) of childhood socio-emotional and cognitive vulnerability in the general population from early to middle childhood, in relation to key risk factors (e.g. parental mental illness and offending). Data were drawn from the New South Wales Child Development Study, which combines intergenerational multi-agency administrative records with cross-sectional assessments using data linkage methods. We analysed data from childhood assessments of socio-emotional and cognitive functioning at two time points (ages 5–6 and 10–11 years) that were linked with administrative data from government departments of health, child protection, and education for 19,087 children and their parents. Latent profile analyses were used to identify socio-emotional and cognitive profiles at each time point, and latent transition analyses were used to determine the probability and potential moderators of transition between profiles at each age. Three developmental profiles were identified in early childhood, reflecting typically developing, emotionally vulnerable, and cognitively vulnerable children, respectively; two profiles were identified in middle childhood, reflecting typically developing and vulnerable children. Child’s sex, child protection services contact, parental mental illness, and parental offending influenced children’s transitions between different vulnerability profiles, with the strongest effects for parental mental illness and child protection contact. Early detection of vulnerable children and factors promoting resilience are important steps in directing future health and social policy, and service planning for vulnerable children.