Skip to main content
Top
Published in: Osteoporosis International 6/2011

01-06-2011 | Original Article

Construction and validation of a simplified fracture risk assessment tool for Canadian women and men: results from the CaMos and Manitoba cohorts

Authors: W. D. Leslie, C. Berger, L. Langsetmo, L. M. Lix, J. D. Adachi, D. A. Hanley, G. Ioannidis, R. G. Josse, C. S. Kovacs, T. Towheed, S. Kaiser, W. P. Olszynski, J. C. Prior, S. Jamal, N. Kreiger, D. Goltzman, Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) Research Group

Published in: Osteoporosis International | Issue 6/2011

Login to get access

Abstract

Summary

A procedure for creating a simplified version of fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®) is described. Calibration, fracture prediction, and concordance were compared with the full FRAX tool using two large, complementary Canadian datasets.

Introduction

The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) system for fracture risk assessment is based upon sex, age, bone mineral density (BMD), prior fragility fracture, and glucocorticoid use. CAROC does not require computer or web access, and categorizes 10-year major osteoporotic fracture risk as low (<10%), moderate (10–20%), or high (>20%).

Methods

Basal CAROC fracture risk tables (by age, sex, and femoral neck BMD) were constructed from Canadian FRAX probabilities for major osteoporotic fractures (adjusted for prevalent clinical risk factors). We assessed categorization and fracture prediction with the updated CAROC system in the CaMos and Manitoba BMD cohorts.

Results

The new CAROC system demonstrated high concordance with the Canadian FRAX tool for risk category in both the CaMos and Manitoba cohorts (89% and 88%). Ten-year fracture outcomes in CaMos and Manitoba BMD cohorts showed good discrimination and calibration for both CAROC (6.1–6.5% in low-risk, 13.5–14.6% in moderate-risk, and 22.3–29.1% in high-risk individuals) and FRAX (6.1–6.6% in low-risk, 14.4–16.1% in moderate-risk, and 23.4–31.0% in high-risk individuals). Reclassification from the CAROC risk category to a different risk category under FRAX occurred in <5% for low-risk, 20–24% for moderate-risk, and 27–30% for high-risk individuals. Reclassified individuals had 10-year fracture outcomes that were still within or close to the original nominal-risk range..

Conclusion

The new CAROC system is well calibrated to the Canadian population and shows a high degree of concordance with the Canadian FRAX tool. The CAROC system provides s a simple alternative when it is not feasible to use the full Canadian FRAX tool.
Literature
1.
go back to reference Kanis JA, Melton LJ III, Christiansen C et al (1994) The diagnosis of osteoporosis [see comments]. J Bone Miner Res 9:1137–41PubMedCrossRef Kanis JA, Melton LJ III, Christiansen C et al (1994) The diagnosis of osteoporosis [see comments]. J Bone Miner Res 9:1137–41PubMedCrossRef
2.
go back to reference Looker AC, Wahner HW, Dunn WL et al (1998) Updated data on proximal femur bone mineral levels of US adults. Osteoporos Int 8:468–89PubMedCrossRef Looker AC, Wahner HW, Dunn WL et al (1998) Updated data on proximal femur bone mineral levels of US adults. Osteoporos Int 8:468–89PubMedCrossRef
3.
go back to reference Kanis JA, McCloskey EV, Johansson H et al (2008) A reference standard for the description of osteoporosis. Bone 42:467–75PubMedCrossRef Kanis JA, McCloskey EV, Johansson H et al (2008) A reference standard for the description of osteoporosis. Bone 42:467–75PubMedCrossRef
4.
go back to reference Siris ES, Chen YT, Abbott TA et al (2004) Bone mineral density thresholds for pharmacological intervention to prevent fractures. Arch Intern Med 164:1108–12PubMedCrossRef Siris ES, Chen YT, Abbott TA et al (2004) Bone mineral density thresholds for pharmacological intervention to prevent fractures. Arch Intern Med 164:1108–12PubMedCrossRef
5.
go back to reference Cranney A, Jamal SA, Tsang JF et al (2007) Low bone mineral density and fracture burden in postmenopausal women. CMAJ 177:575–80PubMed Cranney A, Jamal SA, Tsang JF et al (2007) Low bone mineral density and fracture burden in postmenopausal women. CMAJ 177:575–80PubMed
6.
go back to reference Langsetmo L, Goltzman D, Kovacs CS et al (2009) Repeat low-trauma fractures occur frequently among men and women who have osteopenic BMD. J Bone Miner Res 24:1515–22PubMedCrossRef Langsetmo L, Goltzman D, Kovacs CS et al (2009) Repeat low-trauma fractures occur frequently among men and women who have osteopenic BMD. J Bone Miner Res 24:1515–22PubMedCrossRef
7.
go back to reference Siminoski K, Leslie WD, Frame H et al (2007) Recommendations for bone mineral density reporting in Canada: a shift to absolute fracture risk assessment. J Clin Densitom 10:120–3PubMedCrossRef Siminoski K, Leslie WD, Frame H et al (2007) Recommendations for bone mineral density reporting in Canada: a shift to absolute fracture risk assessment. J Clin Densitom 10:120–3PubMedCrossRef
8.
go back to reference Kanis JA, Johnell O, Oden A et al (2001) Ten year probabilities of osteoporotic fractures according to BMD and diagnostic thresholds. Osteoporos Int 12:989–95PubMedCrossRef Kanis JA, Johnell O, Oden A et al (2001) Ten year probabilities of osteoporotic fractures according to BMD and diagnostic thresholds. Osteoporos Int 12:989–95PubMedCrossRef
9.
go back to reference Kanis JA, Johnell O, De Laet C et al (2004) A meta-analysis of previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk. Bone 35:375–82PubMedCrossRef Kanis JA, Johnell O, De Laet C et al (2004) A meta-analysis of previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk. Bone 35:375–82PubMedCrossRef
10.
go back to reference Kanis JA, Johansson H, Oden A et al (2004) A meta-analysis of prior corticosteroid use and fracture risk. J Bone Miner Res 19:893–9PubMedCrossRef Kanis JA, Johansson H, Oden A et al (2004) A meta-analysis of prior corticosteroid use and fracture risk. J Bone Miner Res 19:893–9PubMedCrossRef
11.
go back to reference Adachi JD, Olszynski WP, Hanley DA et al (2000) Management of corticosteroid-induced osteoporosis. Semin Arthritis Rheum 29:228–51PubMedCrossRef Adachi JD, Olszynski WP, Hanley DA et al (2000) Management of corticosteroid-induced osteoporosis. Semin Arthritis Rheum 29:228–51PubMedCrossRef
12.
go back to reference Leslie WD, Tsang JF, Lix LM (2009) Simplified system for absolute fracture risk assessment: clinical validation in Canadian women. J Bone Miner Res 24:353–60PubMedCrossRef Leslie WD, Tsang JF, Lix LM (2009) Simplified system for absolute fracture risk assessment: clinical validation in Canadian women. J Bone Miner Res 24:353–60PubMedCrossRef
13.
go back to reference Leslie WD, Lix LM (2010) Simplified 10-year absolute fracture risk assessment: a comparison of men and women. J Clin Densitom 13:141–6PubMedCrossRef Leslie WD, Lix LM (2010) Simplified 10-year absolute fracture risk assessment: a comparison of men and women. J Clin Densitom 13:141–6PubMedCrossRef
14.
go back to reference Leslie WD, O’Donnell S, Jean S et al (2009) Trends in hip fracture rates in Canada. JAMA 302:883–9PubMedCrossRef Leslie WD, O’Donnell S, Jean S et al (2009) Trends in hip fracture rates in Canada. JAMA 302:883–9PubMedCrossRef
15.
go back to reference Kanis JA, Oden A, Johansson H et al (2009) FRAX and its applications to clinical practice. Bone 44:734–43PubMedCrossRef Kanis JA, Oden A, Johansson H et al (2009) FRAX and its applications to clinical practice. Bone 44:734–43PubMedCrossRef
16.
go back to reference Kanis JA, Oden A, Johnell O et al (2007) The use of clinical risk factors enhances the performance of BMD in the prediction of hip and osteoporotic fractures in men and women. Osteoporos Int 18:1033–46PubMedCrossRef Kanis JA, Oden A, Johnell O et al (2007) The use of clinical risk factors enhances the performance of BMD in the prediction of hip and osteoporotic fractures in men and women. Osteoporos Int 18:1033–46PubMedCrossRef
17.
go back to reference Leslie WD, Lix D, Langsetmo L, et al. (2010) Construction of a FRAX model for the assessment of fracture probability in Canada and implications for treatment. Osteoporis Int (in press) Leslie WD, Lix D, Langsetmo L, et al. (2010) Construction of a FRAX model for the assessment of fracture probability in Canada and implications for treatment. Osteoporis Int (in press)
18.
go back to reference Chen P, Krege JH, Adachi JD et al (2009) Vertebral fracture status and the World Health Organization risk factors for predicting osteoporotic fracture risk. J Bone Miner Res 24:495–502PubMedCrossRef Chen P, Krege JH, Adachi JD et al (2009) Vertebral fracture status and the World Health Organization risk factors for predicting osteoporotic fracture risk. J Bone Miner Res 24:495–502PubMedCrossRef
19.
go back to reference Kreiger N, Tenenhouse A, Joseph L et al (1999) Research notes: the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) - background, rationale, methods. Can J Aging 18:376–87CrossRef Kreiger N, Tenenhouse A, Joseph L et al (1999) Research notes: the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) - background, rationale, methods. Can J Aging 18:376–87CrossRef
20.
go back to reference Kanis JA, Johnell O, Oden A et al (2008) FRAX and the assessment of fracture probability in men and women from the UK. Osteoporos Int 19:385–97PubMedCrossRef Kanis JA, Johnell O, Oden A et al (2008) FRAX and the assessment of fracture probability in men and women from the UK. Osteoporos Int 19:385–97PubMedCrossRef
21.
go back to reference Berger C, Langsetmo L, Joseph L et al (2009) Association between change in BMD and fragility fracture in women and men. J Bone Miner Res 24:361–70PubMedCrossRef Berger C, Langsetmo L, Joseph L et al (2009) Association between change in BMD and fragility fracture in women and men. J Bone Miner Res 24:361–70PubMedCrossRef
22.
go back to reference Genant HK, Grampp S, Gluer CC et al (1994) Universal standardization for dual x-ray absorptiometry: Patient and phantom cross-calibration results. J Bone Miner Res 9:1503–14PubMedCrossRef Genant HK, Grampp S, Gluer CC et al (1994) Universal standardization for dual x-ray absorptiometry: Patient and phantom cross-calibration results. J Bone Miner Res 9:1503–14PubMedCrossRef
23.
go back to reference Roos NP, Shapiro E (1999) Revisiting the manitoba centre for health policy and evaluation and its population-based health information system. Med Care 37:JS10–JS14PubMedCrossRef Roos NP, Shapiro E (1999) Revisiting the manitoba centre for health policy and evaluation and its population-based health information system. Med Care 37:JS10–JS14PubMedCrossRef
24.
go back to reference WHO Collaborating Centre for Drug Statistics Methodology (2005) Guidelines for ATC classification and DDD assignment. Norwegian Institute for Public Health, Oslo WHO Collaborating Centre for Drug Statistics Methodology (2005) Guidelines for ATC classification and DDD assignment. Norwegian Institute for Public Health, Oslo
25.
go back to reference Kozyrskyj AL, Mustard CA (1998) Validation of an electronic, population-based prescription database. Ann Pharmacother 32:1152–7PubMedCrossRef Kozyrskyj AL, Mustard CA (1998) Validation of an electronic, population-based prescription database. Ann Pharmacother 32:1152–7PubMedCrossRef
26.
go back to reference Leslie WD, Tsang JF, Caetano PA et al (2007) Effectiveness of bone density measurement for predicting osteoporotic fractures in clinical practice. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 92:77–81PubMedCrossRef Leslie WD, Tsang JF, Caetano PA et al (2007) Effectiveness of bone density measurement for predicting osteoporotic fractures in clinical practice. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 92:77–81PubMedCrossRef
27.
go back to reference Leslie WD, Metge C (2003) Establishing a regional bone density program: lessons from the Manitoba experience. J Clin Densitom 6:275–82PubMedCrossRef Leslie WD, Metge C (2003) Establishing a regional bone density program: lessons from the Manitoba experience. J Clin Densitom 6:275–82PubMedCrossRef
28.
go back to reference Leslie WD, MacWilliam L, Lix L et al (2005) A population-based study of osteoporosis testing and treatment following introduction of a new bone densitometry service. Osteoporos Int 16:773–82PubMedCrossRef Leslie WD, MacWilliam L, Lix L et al (2005) A population-based study of osteoporosis testing and treatment following introduction of a new bone densitometry service. Osteoporos Int 16:773–82PubMedCrossRef
29.
go back to reference Leslie WD, Caetano PA, MacWilliam LR et al (2005) Construction and validation of a population-based bone densitometry database. J Clin Densitom 8:25–30PubMedCrossRef Leslie WD, Caetano PA, MacWilliam LR et al (2005) Construction and validation of a population-based bone densitometry database. J Clin Densitom 8:25–30PubMedCrossRef
30.
go back to reference Leslie WD (2006) The importance of spectrum bias on bone density monitoring in clinical practice. Bone 39:361–8PubMedCrossRef Leslie WD (2006) The importance of spectrum bias on bone density monitoring in clinical practice. Bone 39:361–8PubMedCrossRef
31.
go back to reference Janes H, Pepe MS, Gu W (2008) Assessing the value of risk predictions by using risk stratification tables. Ann Intern Med 149:751–60PubMed Janes H, Pepe MS, Gu W (2008) Assessing the value of risk predictions by using risk stratification tables. Ann Intern Med 149:751–60PubMed
32.
go back to reference Siminoski K, Leslie WD, Frame H et al (2005) Recommendations for bone mineral density reporting in Canada. Can Assoc Radiol J 56:178–88PubMed Siminoski K, Leslie WD, Frame H et al (2005) Recommendations for bone mineral density reporting in Canada. Can Assoc Radiol J 56:178–88PubMed
33.
go back to reference Leslie WD, O’Donnell S, Lagace C et al (2009) Population-based Canadian hip fracture rates with international comparisons. Osteoporos Int 21:1317–1322PubMedCrossRef Leslie WD, O’Donnell S, Lagace C et al (2009) Population-based Canadian hip fracture rates with international comparisons. Osteoporos Int 21:1317–1322PubMedCrossRef
34.
go back to reference Kanis JA, Johnell O, De Laet C et al (2002) International variations in hip fracture probabilities: implications for risk assessment. J Bone Miner Res 17:1237–44PubMedCrossRef Kanis JA, Johnell O, De Laet C et al (2002) International variations in hip fracture probabilities: implications for risk assessment. J Bone Miner Res 17:1237–44PubMedCrossRef
35.
go back to reference Fraser L, Langsetmo L, Berger C et al (2010). Fracture prediction and calibration of a Canadian FRAX tool: a population-based report from CaMos. Osteoporis Int (in press) Fraser L, Langsetmo L, Berger C et al (2010). Fracture prediction and calibration of a Canadian FRAX tool: a population-based report from CaMos. Osteoporis Int (in press)
36.
go back to reference Leslie WD, Lix LM, Johansson H et al (2010) Independent clinical validation of a Canadian FRAX((R)) tool: Fracture prediction and model calibration. J Bone Miner Res. doi:10.1002/jbmr.123 Leslie WD, Lix LM, Johansson H et al (2010) Independent clinical validation of a Canadian FRAX((R)) tool: Fracture prediction and model calibration. J Bone Miner Res. doi:10.​1002/​jbmr.​123
Metadata
Title
Construction and validation of a simplified fracture risk assessment tool for Canadian women and men: results from the CaMos and Manitoba cohorts
Authors
W. D. Leslie
C. Berger
L. Langsetmo
L. M. Lix
J. D. Adachi
D. A. Hanley
G. Ioannidis
R. G. Josse
C. S. Kovacs
T. Towheed
S. Kaiser
W. P. Olszynski
J. C. Prior
S. Jamal
N. Kreiger
D. Goltzman
Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) Research Group
Publication date
01-06-2011
Publisher
Springer-Verlag
Published in
Osteoporosis International / Issue 6/2011
Print ISSN: 0937-941X
Electronic ISSN: 1433-2965
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-010-1445-5

Other articles of this Issue 6/2011

Osteoporosis International 6/2011 Go to the issue

Bone Quality Seminars: Bone Fracture Healing and Strengthening

Bone regeneration and limb lengthening