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Diabetologia
Published in: Diabetologia 3/2016

Open Access 01-03-2016 | Article

Innate biology versus lifestyle behaviour in the aetiology of obesity and type 2 diabetes: the GLACIER Study

Authors: Alaitz Poveda, Robert W. Koivula, Shafqat Ahmad, Inês Barroso, Göran Hallmans, Ingegerd Johansson, Frida Renström, Paul W. Franks

Published in: Diabetologia | Issue 3/2016

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Abstract

Aims/hypothesis

We compared the ability of genetic (established type 2 diabetes, fasting glucose, 2 h glucose and obesity variants) and modifiable lifestyle (diet, physical activity, smoking, alcohol and education) risk factors to predict incident type 2 diabetes and obesity in a population-based prospective cohort of 3,444 Swedish adults studied sequentially at baseline and 10 years later.

Methods

Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the predictive ability of genetic and lifestyle risk factors on incident obesity and type 2 diabetes by calculating the AUC.

Results

The predictive accuracy of lifestyle risk factors was similar to that yielded by genetic information for incident type 2 diabetes (AUC 75% and 74%, respectively) and obesity (AUC 68% and 73%, respectively) in models adjusted for age, age2 and sex. The addition of genetic information to the lifestyle model significantly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes (AUC 80%; p = 0.0003) and obesity (AUC 79%; p < 0.0001) and resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 58% for type 2 diabetes and 64% for obesity.

Conclusions/interpretation

These findings illustrate that lifestyle and genetic information separately provide a similarly high degree of long-range predictive accuracy for obesity and type 2 diabetes.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Innate biology versus lifestyle behaviour in the aetiology of obesity and type 2 diabetes: the GLACIER Study
Authors
Alaitz Poveda
Robert W. Koivula
Shafqat Ahmad
Inês Barroso
Göran Hallmans
Ingegerd Johansson
Frida Renström
Paul W. Franks
Publication date
01-03-2016
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in
Diabetologia / Issue 3/2016
Print ISSN: 0012-186X
Electronic ISSN: 1432-0428
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-015-3818-y

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