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BMC Cancer

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Open Access 01-12-2021 | Hepatocellular Carcinoma | Research article

Prognostic nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma with radiofrequency ablation: a retrospective cohort study

Authors: Zhenhua Lu, Zhen Sun, Chengyu Liu, Xiaolei Shi, Rui Li, Weiwei Shao, Yangyang Zheng, Yao Li, Jinghai Song

Published in: BMC Cancer | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Background

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is an effective treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to analyze the prognostic factors of HCC patients treated with RFA and to develop nomograms for outcome prediction.

Methods

A total of 3142 HCC patients treated with RFA were recruited, and their data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multifactor Cox analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors. These factors were integrated into a nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Consistency indices and calibration plots were used to assess the accuracy of the nomograms in both the internal and external cohorts.

Results

The median follow-up periods for HCC patients treated with RFA were 27 and 29 months for OS and CSS, respectively. Marital status, age, race, histological grade of differentiation, tumor size, T stage, and serum alpha-fetoprotein levels at the time of diagnosis were identified as prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Additionally, M stage was identified as risk factors for OS. These risk factors are included in the nomogram. The calibration plots of the OS and CSS nomograms showed excellent consistency between actual survival and nomogram predictions. The bootstrap-corrected concordance indices of the OS and CSS nomograms were 0.637 (95% CI, 0.628–0.646) and 0.670 (95% 0.661–0.679), respectively. Importantly, our nomogram performed better discriminatory compared with 8th edition tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage system for predicting OS and CSS.

Conclusions

We identified prognostic factors for HCC patients treated with RFA and provided an accurate and personalized survival prediction scheme.

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Title: Prognostic nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma with radiofrequency ablation: a retrospective cohort study
Authors: Zhenhua Lu
Zhen Sun
Chengyu Liu
Xiaolei Shi
Rui Li
Weiwei Shao
Yangyang Zheng
Yao Li
Jinghai Song
Publication date: 01-12-2021
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Published in: BMC Cancer / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2407
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-08505-0

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