Metavir Fibrosis Stage in Hepatitis C–Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Association with Noninvasive Liver Reserve Models

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is the major etiology for cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The severity of liver fibrosis is a crucial factor in prognostic prediction. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of Metavir fibrosis stage in HCV-related HCC and its association with noninvasive liver reserve models.

Between 2004 and 2016, 172 patients with HCV-related HCC undergoing surgical resection were enrolled. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify prognostic predictors. The area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) was used for comparison in predicting cirrhosis among different noninvasive liver reserve models.

In the multivariate Cox analysis, AST > 45 IU/mL, multiple tumors, tumor size greater than 3 cm, and serum AFP > 20 ng/mL were independent risk factors linked with tumor recurrence. There was no significant association between Metavir fibrosis stage/ inflammatory activity and tumor recurrence. In the Cox model, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B, tumor size greater than 3 cm, and Metavir fibrosis stage F3-F4 were independent predictors associated with decreased survival (all p < 0.001). In subgroup analysis, survival differences were consistently observed between patients with fibrosis stage F0–F2 and F3–F4 (p < 0.05) in either small (≤ 3 cm) or large (> 3 cm) HCC group. Among the noninvasive models, FIB-4 had the highest predictive accuracy (AUROC = 0.768, p < 0.001) to indicate cirrhosis compared to other models.

Metavir fibrosis stage can predict survival in HCV-related HCC patients independent of tumor size. FIB-4 is the best noninvasive model to predict cirrhosis in these patients.