Published in:
13-10-2023 | Hepatitis | Original Article
New prognostic model for hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and Maddrey’s discriminant function <32
Authors:
Tae Hyung Kim, Hyung Joon Yim, Young Kul Jung, Do Seon Song, Eileen L. Yoon, Hee Yeon Kim, Seong Hee Kang, Young Chang, Jeong-Ju Yoo, Baek Gyu Jun, Sung Won Lee, Jung Gil Park, Ji Won Park, Sung-Eun Kim, Tae Yeob Kim, Soung Won Jeong, Ki Tae Suk, Moon Young Kim, Sang Gyune Kim, Won Kim, Jae Young Jang, Jin Mo Yang, Dong Joon Kim, The Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) Study Group
Published in:
Hepatology International
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Issue 2/2024
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Abstract
Background & aims
Few studies have investigated the prognosis of patients with non-severe alcoholic hepatitis (Non-SAH). The study aimed to develop a new prognostic model for patients with especially Non-SAH.
Methods
We extracted 316 hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without severe alcoholic hepatitis, defined as Maddrey’s discriminant function score lower than 32, from the retrospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort to develop a new prognostic model (training set), and validated it in 419 patients from the prospective KACLiF cohort (validation set). Prognostic factors for death and liver transplantation were analyzed to construct a prognostic model.
Results
Twenty-one and 24 patients died within 6 months in both sets, respectively. In the training set, the highest area under the curve (AUC) of conventional prognostic models was 0.765, 0.732, and 0.684 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively. Refractory ascites, vasopressor use, and hyponatremia were independently associated with mortality of cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH. The new model consisted of four variables: past deterioration, neutrophil proportion > 70%, Na < 128 mmol/L, and vasopressor use. It showed the highest accuracy for short-term mortality in the training and validation sets (0.803 and 0.786; 0.797 and 0.776; and 0.789 and 0.721 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively).
Conclusion
There is a group of patients with high risk among those classified as Non-SAH. The new model will help stratifying cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH more accurately in terms of prognosis. The patients with high Non-SAH score need to monitor closely and might be considered for preemptive liver transplantation.
Trial regestration
ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02650011.