Skip to main content
Key Specialties
Cardiology Diabetology Endocrinology Gastroenterology Geriatrics and Gerontology Gynecology and Obstetrics Hematology Infectious Disease Internal Medicine Nephrology Neurology Oncology Pediatrics Respiratory Medicine Rheumatology Surgery
Congress Coverage
2024 ACC Congress 2023 ESMO Congress 2023 EASD Congress 2023 ERS Congress 2023 ESC Congress
Clinical Collections
Advances in Alzheimer’s

At a glance: The STEP trials

A round-up of the STEP phase 3 clinical trials evaluating semaglutide for weight loss in people with overweight or obesity.
ADVANCED SEARCH
Log in
Top
BMC Medicine
Published in: BMC Medicine 1/2019

Open Access 01-12-2019 | Dengue Virus | Research article

Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study

Authors: Kathleen M. O’Reilly, Emilie Hendrickx, Dinar D. Kharisma, Nandyan N. Wilastonegoro, Lauren B. Carrington, Iqbal R. F. Elyazar, Adam J. Kucharski, Rachel Lowe, Stefan Flasche, David M. Pigott, Robert C. Reiner Jr, W. John Edmunds, Simon I. Hay, Laith Yakob, Donald S. Shepard, Oliver J. Brady

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2019

Login to get access

Abstract

Background

Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes reduce dengue virus transmission, and city-wide releases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, are showing promising entomological results. Accurate estimates of the burden of dengue, its spatial distribution and the potential impact of Wolbachia are critical in guiding funder and government decisions on its future wider use.

Methods

Here, we combine multiple modelling methods for burden estimation to predict national case burden disaggregated by severity and map the distribution of burden across the country using three separate data sources. An ensemble of transmission models then predicts the estimated reduction in dengue transmission following a nationwide roll-out of wMel Wolbachia.

Results

We estimate that 7.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.8–17.7 million) symptomatic dengue cases occurred in Indonesia in 2015 and were associated with 332,865 (UI 94,175–754,203) lost disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The majority of dengue’s burden was due to non-severe cases that did not seek treatment or were challenging to diagnose in outpatient settings leading to substantial underreporting. Estimated burden was highly concentrated in a small number of large cities with 90% of dengue cases occurring in 15.3% of land area. Implementing a nationwide Wolbachia population replacement programme was estimated to avert 86.2% (UI 36.2–99.9%) of cases over a long-term average.

Conclusions

These results suggest interventions targeted to the highest burden cities can have a disproportionate impact on dengue burden. Area-wide interventions, such as Wolbachia, that are deployed based on the area covered could protect people more efficiently than individual-based interventions, such as vaccines, in such dense environments.
Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Literature
1.
GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet. 2018;392:1789–858.
2.
Bowman LR, Donegan S, McCall PJ. Is dengue vector control deficient in effectiveness or evidence?: systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016;10:e0004551.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
3.
Yakob L, Walker T. Zika virus outbreak in the Americas: the need for novel mosquito control methods. Lancet Glob Health. 2016;4:e148–9.CrossRefPubMed
4.
von Seidlein L, Kekulé AS, Strickman D. Novel vector control approaches: the future for prevention of Zika virus transmission? PLoS Med. 2017;14:e1002219.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
5.
Walker T, Johnson PH, Moreira LA, et al. The wMel Wolbachia strain blocks dengue and invades caged Aedes aegypti populations. Nature. 2011;476:450–3.CrossRefPubMed
6.
Zheng X, Zhang D, Li Y, Yang C, Wu Y, Liang X, Liang Y, Pan X, Hu L, Sun Q, Wang X. Incompatible and sterile insect techniques combined eliminate mosquitoes. Nature. 2019;17:1.
7.
O’Neill SL, Ryan PA, Turley AP, et al. Scaled deployment of Wolbachia to protect the community from Aedes transmitted arboviruses. Gates Open Res. 2018;2:36.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
8.
Schmidt TL, Barton NH, Rašić G, et al. Local introduction and heterogeneous spatial spread of dengue-suppressing Wolbachia through an urban population of Aedes aegypti. PLoS Biol. 2017;15:e2001894.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
9.
10.
van den Hurk AF, Hall-Mendelin S, Pyke AT, et al. Impact of Wolbachia on infection with chikungunya and yellow fever viruses in the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012;6:e1892.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
11.
Dutra HLC, Rocha MN, Dias FBS, Mansur SB, Caragata EP, Moreira LA. Wolbachia blocks currently circulating Zika virus isolates in Brazilian Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Cell Host Microbe. 2016;19:771–4.CrossRef
12.
Hoffmann AA, Montgomery BL, Popovici J, et al. Successful establishment of Wolbachia in Aedes populations to suppress dengue transmission. Nature. 2011;476:454–7.CrossRefPubMed
13.
Anders KL, Indriani C, Ahmad RA, et al. The AWED trial (applying Wolbachia to eliminate dengue) to assess the efficacy of Wolbachia-infected mosquito deployments to reduce dengue incidence in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial. Trials. 2018;19:302.
14.
15.
Stanaway JD, Shepard DS, Undurraga EA, et al. The global burden of dengue: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet Infect Dis. 2016;3099:1–12.
16.
Shepard DS, Undurraga EA, Halasa YA, Stanaway JD. The global economic burden of dengue: a systematic analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2016;16:935–41.CrossRefPubMed
17.
Undurraga EA, Halasa YA, Shepard DS. Use of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in Southeast Asia: a systematic analysis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2013;7:e2056.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
18.
19.
Nealon J, Taurel A-F, Capeding MR, et al. Symptomatic dengue disease in five southeast Asian countries: epidemiological evidence from a dengue vaccine trial. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016;10:e0004918.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
20.
Toan NT, Rossi S, Prisco G, Nante N, Viviani S. Dengue epidemiology in selected endemic countries: factors influencing expansion factors as estimates of underreporting. Trop Med Int Health. 2015;20:840–63.CrossRef
21.
Wahyono TYM, Nealon J, Beucher S, et al. Indonesian dengue burden estimates: review of evidence by an expert panel. Epidemiol Infect. 2017;145:2324–9.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
22.
23.
Brady OJ, Messina JP, Scott TW, Hay SI. Mapping the epidemiology of dengue. Oxford: CABI International; 2014.
24.
25.
Salje H, Paul KK, Paul R, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Rahman Z, Alam MS, Rahman M, Al-Amin HM, Heffelfinger J, Gurley E. Nationally-representative serostudy of dengue in Bangladesh allows generalizable disease burden estimates. Elife. 2019;8:e42869.
26.
Ferguson NM, Kien DTH, Clapham H, et al. Modeling the impact on virus transmission of Wolbachia-mediated blocking of dengue virus infection of Aedes aegypti. Sci Transl Med. 2015;7:279ra37.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
27.
Flasche S, Jit M, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, et al. The long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia): a model comparison study. PLoS Med. 2016;13:e1002181.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
28.
Hughes H, Britton NF. Modelling the use of Wolbachia to control dengue fever transmission. Bull Math Biol. 2013;75:796–818.CrossRefPubMed
29.
Ndii MZ, Hickson RI, Allingham D, Mercer GN. Modelling the transmission dynamics of dengue in the presence of Wolbachia. Math Biosci. 2015;262:157–66.CrossRefPubMed
30.
31.
Guzzetta G, Marques-Toledo CA, Rosà R, Teixeira M, Merler S. Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction. Nat Commun. 2018;9:2837.
32.
Stoddard ST, Forshey BM, Morrison AC, et al. House-to-house human movement drives dengue virus transmission. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013;110:994–9.CrossRef
33.
34.
SEARO. Comprehensive guidelines for prevention and control of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever, revised and expanded edition. New Delhi: World Health Organization, South East Asian Regional Office; 2011.
35.
UNDP. World population prospects 2017. Geneva: United Nations Population Division; 2017.
36.
Zeng W, Halasa Y, Durand L, Coudeville L, Shepard D. Impact of a dengue episode on quality of life or DALYs: systematic review. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2018;99:1458–65.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
37.
38.
Prayitno A, Taurel A-F, Nealon J, et al. Dengue seroprevalence and force of primary infection in a representative population of urban dwelling Indonesian children. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2017;11:e0005621.
39.
Sasmono RT, Taurel A-F, Prayitno A, et al. Dengue virus serotype distribution based on serological evidence in pediatric urban population in Indonesia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2018;12:e0006616.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
40.
41.
IPCC. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Geneva: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; 2014.
42.
Linacre ET. A simple formula for estimating evaporation rates in various climates, using temperature data alone. Agric Meteorol. 1977;18:409–24.CrossRef
43.
Kraemer MUG, Sinka ME, Duda KA, et al. The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Elife. 2015;4:e08347.
44.
Brady OJ, Golding N, Pigott DM, et al. Global temperature constraints on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission. Parasit Vectors. 2014;7:338.CrossRef
45.
Kraemer MU, Reiner RC, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Gilbert M, Pigott DM, Yi D, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak LB, Shirude S. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Nature microbiology. 2019;4(5):854.
46.
Elith J, Leathwick JR, Hastie T. A working guide to boosted regression trees. J Anim Ecol. 2008;77:802–13.CrossRefPubMed
47.
48.
Limmathurotsakul D, Golding N, Dance DAB, et al. Predicted global distribution of Burkholderia pseudomallei and burden of melioidosis. Nat Microbiol. 2016;1:15008.
49.
Nguyet MN, Duong THK, Trung VT, et al. Host and viral features of human dengue cases shape the population of infected and infectious Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013;110:9072–7.
50.
Karyanti MR, Uiterwaal CSPM, Kusriastuti R, et al. The changing incidence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Indonesia: a 45-year registry-based analysis. BMC Infect Dis. 2014;14:412.
51.
Carrington LB, Tran BCN, Le NTH, et al. Field- and clinically derived estimates of Wolbachia-mediated blocking of dengue virus transmission potential in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2018;115:361–6.CrossRef
52.
L’Azou M, Moureau A, Sarti E, et al. Symptomatic dengue in children in 10 Asian and Latin American countries. N Engl J Med. 2016;374:1155–66.CrossRefPubMed
53.
Brady OJ, Bangert M, Castillo GG, et al. A tool kit for national dengue burden estimation. Geneva: The World Health Organization; 2018.
54.
World Health Organization. Dengue guidelines for diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control: new edition. 2009.
55.
Elsinga J, Lizarazo EF, Vincenti MF, et al. Health seeking behaviour and treatment intentions of dengue and fever: a household survey of children and adults in Venezuela. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015;9:e0004237.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
56.
Fithian W, Elith J, Hastie T, Keith DA. Bias correction in species distribution models: pooling survey and collection data for multiple species. Methods Ecol Evol. 2015;6:424–38.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
57.
Cameron E, Battle KE, Bhatt S, et al. Defining the relationship between infection prevalence and clinical incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Nat Commun. 2015;6:8170.
58.
Dorigatti I, McCormack C, Nedjati-Gilani G, Ferguson NM. Using Wolbachia for dengue control: insights from modelling. Trends Parasitol. 2018;34:102–13.CrossRefPubMed
59.
Tantowijoyo W, Arguni E, Johnson P, et al. Spatial and temporal variation in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) numbers in the Yogyakarta area of Java, Indonesia, with implications for Wolbachia releases. J Med Entomol. 2016;53:188–98.CrossRef
60.
Ant TH, Herd CS, Geoghegan V, Hoffmann AA, Sinkins SP. The Wolbachia strain wAu provides highly efficient virus transmission blocking in Aedes aegypti. PLoS Pathog. 2018;14:e1006815.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
Metadata
Title
Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study
Authors
Kathleen M. O’Reilly
Emilie Hendrickx
Dinar D. Kharisma
Nandyan N. Wilastonegoro
Lauren B. Carrington
Iqbal R. F. Elyazar
Adam J. Kucharski
Rachel Lowe
Stefan Flasche
David M. Pigott
Robert C. Reiner Jr
W. John Edmunds
Simon I. Hay
Laith Yakob
Donald S. Shepard
Oliver J. Brady
Publication date
01-12-2019
Publisher
BioMed Central
Keyword
Dengue Virus
Published in
BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2019
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-019-1396-4

Other articles of this Issue 1/2019

BMC Medicine 1/2019 Go to the issue

Research article

Disaggregating catastrophic health expenditure by disease area: cross-country estimates based on the World Health Surveys

Opinion

Translational research on reserve against neurodegenerative disease: consensus report of the International Conference on Cognitive Reserve in the Dementias and the Alzheimer’s Association Reserve, Resilience and Protective Factors Professional Interest Area working groups

Editorial

Advancing health equity through cross-cutting approaches to health-related stigma

Research article

Deferred and referred deliveries contribute to stillbirths in the Indian state of Bihar: results from a population-based survey of all births

Research article

Tissue-infiltrating lymphocytes signature predicts survival in patients with early/intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma

Opinion

When to keep it simple – adaptive designs are not always useful