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Journal of General Internal Medicine
Published in: Journal of General Internal Medicine 1/2018

Open Access 01-01-2018 | Review Paper

Defining and Measuring Diagnostic Uncertainty in Medicine: A Systematic Review

Authors: Viraj Bhise, MD, MPH, Suja S. Rajan, PhD, Dean F. Sittig, PhD, Robert O. Morgan, PhD, Pooja Chaudhary, MD, Hardeep Singh, MD, MPH

Published in: Journal of General Internal Medicine | Issue 1/2018

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Abstract

Background

Physicians routinely encounter diagnostic uncertainty in practice. Despite its impact on health care utilization, costs and error, measurement of diagnostic uncertainty is poorly understood. We conducted a systematic review to describe how diagnostic uncertainty is defined and measured in medical practice.

Methods

We searched OVID Medline and PsycINFO databases from inception until May 2017 using a combination of keywords and Medical Subject Headings (MeSH). Additional search strategies included manual review of references identified in the primary search, use of a topic-specific database (AHRQ-PSNet) and expert input. We specifically focused on articles that (1) defined diagnostic uncertainty; (2) conceptualized diagnostic uncertainty in terms of its sources, complexity of its attributes or strategies for managing it; or (3) attempted to measure diagnostic uncertainty.

Key Results

We identified 123 articles for full review, none of which defined diagnostic uncertainty. Three attributes of diagnostic uncertainty were relevant for measurement: (1) it is a subjective perception experienced by the clinician; (2) it has the potential to impact diagnostic evaluation—for example, when inappropriately managed, it can lead to diagnostic delays; and (3) it is dynamic in nature, changing with time. Current methods for measuring diagnostic uncertainty in medical practice include: (1) asking clinicians about their perception of uncertainty (surveys and qualitative interviews), (2) evaluating the patient–clinician encounter (such as by reviews of medical records, transcripts of patient–clinician communication and observation), and (3) experimental techniques (patient vignette studies).

Conclusions

The term “diagnostic uncertainty” lacks a clear definition, and there is no comprehensive framework for its measurement in medical practice. Based on review findings, we propose that diagnostic uncertainty be defined as a “subjective perception of an inability to provide an accurate explanation of the patient’s health problem.” Methodological advancements in measuring diagnostic uncertainty can improve our understanding of diagnostic decision-making and inform interventions to reduce diagnostic errors and overuse of health care resources.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Defining and Measuring Diagnostic Uncertainty in Medicine: A Systematic Review
Authors
Viraj Bhise, MD, MPH
Suja S. Rajan, PhD
Dean F. Sittig, PhD
Robert O. Morgan, PhD
Pooja Chaudhary, MD
Hardeep Singh, MD, MPH
Publication date
01-01-2018
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Journal of General Internal Medicine / Issue 1/2018
Print ISSN: 0884-8734
Electronic ISSN: 1525-1497
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-017-4164-1

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