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International Journal of Colorectal Disease

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Open Access 01-12-2024 | Colorectal Cancer | RESEARCH

Prediction of 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality after colorectal cancer surgery using a data-driven approach

Authors: Karoline Bendix Bräuner, Andi Tsouchnika, Maliha Mashkoor, Ross Williams, Andreas Weinberger Rosen, Morten Frederik Schlaikjær Hartwig, Mustafa Bulut, Niclas Dohrn, Peter Rijnbeek, Ismail Gögenur

Published in: International Journal of Colorectal Disease | Issue 1/2024

Abstract

Purpose

To develop prediction models for short-term mortality risk assessment following colorectal cancer surgery.

Methods

Data was harmonized from four Danish observational health databases into the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model. With a data-driven approach using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator logistic regression on preoperative data, we developed 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality prediction models. We assessed discriminative performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic and precision-recall curve and calibration using calibration slope, intercept, and calibration-in-the-large. We additionally assessed model performance in subgroups of curative, palliative, elective, and emergency surgery.

Results

A total of 57,521 patients were included in the study population, 51.1% male and with a median age of 72 years. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88, 0.878, and 0.861 for 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality, respectively, and a calibration-in-the-large of 1.01, 0.99, and 0.99. The overall incidence of mortality were 4.48% for 30-day mortality, 6.64% for 90-day mortality, and 12.8% for 1-year mortality, respectively. Subgroup analysis showed no improvement of discrimination or calibration when separating the cohort into cohorts of elective surgery, emergency surgery, curative surgery, and palliative surgery.

Conclusion

We were able to train prediction models for the risk of short-term mortality on a data set of four combined national health databases with good discrimination and calibration. We found that one cohort including all operated patients resulted in better performing models than cohorts based on several subgroups.

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Title: Prediction of 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality after colorectal cancer surgery using a data-driven approach
Authors: Karoline Bendix Bräuner
Andi Tsouchnika
Maliha Mashkoor
Ross Williams
Andreas Weinberger Rosen
Morten Frederik Schlaikjær Hartwig
Mustafa Bulut
Niclas Dohrn
Peter Rijnbeek
Ismail Gögenur
Publication date: 01-12-2024
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Keywords: Colorectal Cancer
Colorectal Cancer
Published in: International Journal of Colorectal Disease / Issue 1/2024
Print ISSN: 0179-1958
Electronic ISSN: 1432-1262
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00384-024-04607-w

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Prediction of 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality after colorectal cancer surgery using a data-driven approach

Abstract

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusion

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