Published in:
Open Access
03-06-2023 | Circulatory Disease | Original Article
A longitudinal study on the effect of extreme temperature on non-accidental deaths in Hulunbuir City based on DLNM model
Authors:
Sheng Gao, Tian Yang, Xiuhong Zhang, Guofeng Li, Yuhan Qin, Xiangnan Zhang, Jing Li, Shengmei Yang, Minghui Yin, Jufang Zhao, Nana Wei, Jing Zhao, Li li, Huan Li, Xuanzhi Yue, Wenyu Zhang, Xinrui Jia, Yaochun Fan, Hongli Liu
Published in:
International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health
|
Issue 7/2023
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Abstract
Objective
To explore the frequency and effect of extreme temperature on the non-accidental death rate in Hulunbuir, a Chinese ice city.
Methods
From 2014 to 2018, mortality data of residents residing in Hulunbuir City were collected. The lag and cumulative effects of extreme temperature conditions on non-accidental death and respiratory and circulatory diseases were analyzed by distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM).
Results
The risk of death was the highest during high-temperature conditions, the RR value was 1.111 (95% CI 1.031 ~ 1.198). The effect was severe and acute. The risk of death during extreme low-temperature conditions peaked on the fifth day, (RR 1.057; 95% CI 1.012 ~ 1.112), then decreased and was maintained for 12 days. The cumulative RR value was 1.289 (95% CI 1.045 ~ 1.589). Heat significantly influenced the incidence of non-accidental death in both men (RR 1.187; 95% CI 1.059–1.331) and women (RR 1.252; 95% CI 1.085–1.445).
Conclusions
Regardless of the temperature effect, the risk of death in the elderly group (≥ 65 years) was significantly higher than that of the young group (0–64 years). High-temperature and low-temperature conditions can contribute to the increased number of deaths in Hulunbei. While high-temperature has an acute effect, low-temperature has a lagging effect. Elderly and women, as well as people with circulatory diseases, are more sensitive to extreme temperatures.